Cathie Wood Downplays Impact Of Yen 'Carry Trade' On Markets: Here's Why Ark Invest Founder Thinks Fed Rate Should Be At 1% Now
Cathie Wood Downplays Impact Of Yen 'Carry Trade' On Markets: Here's Why Ark Invest Founder Thinks Fed Rate Should Be At 1% Now
The CBOE Volatility Index, known more commonly as the VIX, spiked to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic amid Monday's global market meltdown. Fund manager Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, weighed in on the implication of the development.
周一全球市场大跌,CBOE波动指数(更常被称为VIX),飙升至COVID-19大流行病以来未曾见过的水平。Ark Invest创始人、基金经理Cathie Wood就这一局面的影响发表了看法。
Making Sense Of VIX Move: The VIX surged past 65 intraday on Monday. Wood said this marked the fourth highest level in the past 40 years, after the "portfolio insurance" failure on Black Monday in Oct. 1987; Lehman Brothers went under in 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020.
解读波动率指数变化:周一,VIX在盘中一度飙升至65以上。伍德表示,这是过去40年中第四高的水平,仅次于1987年10月“投资组合保险”失败、2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭以及2020年COVID-19大流行等事件,随之而来的是扑街的市场。
In 1987 and 2020, the "panic/cathartic moves" in the VIX created significant buying opportunities in assets, particularly stocks that had been trounced, Wood said. Following the VIX spike in 2008, the broader equity markets did not bottom for another six months until March 2009.
伍德表示,在1987年和2020年,VIX的“惊慌 / 宣泄性波动”创造了重要的资产购买机会,尤其是那些被打压的股票。在2008年VIX飙升之后,更广泛的股票市场直到2009年3月才达到底部。
Monday's spike in VIX resulted from conditions resembling both 1987 and 2008, the Ark Invest founder said. She noted the portfolio insurance failure that led to the Black Monday in 1987 resulted from people trying to cash out at the same time. This is similar to what is happening with yen "carry trades" currently, she said.
Ark Invest创始人表示,周一VIX的飙升导致情况类似于1987年和2008年。她指出,导致1987年黑色星期一的投资组合保险失败是因为许多人尝试同时卖出股票。她说,这与日元“carry trades”目前发生的情况类似。
Yen Carry Trade: Wood noted that investors and speculators were borrowing yen at "de minimis" interest rates for the past three years. They bet on the currency's continued depreciation and reinvested in higher-yielding U.S. fixed income, with some of these recently going into the Magnificent Six stocks, she said.
伍德指出,在过去三年中,投资者和投机者以“微不足道”的利率借入日元。他们押注该货币将继续贬值,并将资金再投资于更高收益的美国固定收益产品,其中一部分最近投资于“六大神股”。
The Magnificent Six is a collective name given to NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META), Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).
“六大神股”是指NVIDIA Corp.(NASDAQ:NVDA)、Meta Platforms, Inc.(NASDAQ:META)、Alphabet, Inc.(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)、Microsoft Corp.(NASDAQ:MSFT)、Amazon.com Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN)和Apple, Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL)。
As U.S. data released last week soured and the Bank of Japan raised rates further, investors and speculators faced margin calls forcing them to unwind the yen carry trade, Wood said.
伍德表示,随着上周美国公布的数据走弱,以及日本银行进一步加息,投资者和投机者面临强制平仓,迫使他们放弃日元 carry trade。
"Delivering consistent returns over many years, the yen carry trade probably was leveraged and is hurting macro-oriented strategies disproportionately," she said, adding that "like 1987 and unlike 2008, its impact could be limited."
她说:“多年来持续提供回报率的日元 carry trade 可能会杠杆纵向化,并对宏观定向策略造成不成比例的影响。”她补充道:“类似1987年,而不是2008年,其影响可能是有限的。”
Unlike in 1987 and like 2008, broad-based price deflation could be more relevant currently, the fund manager also said. The metals-to-gold ratio suggests the 10-year Treasury note should yield 2% as opposed to the 3.8% level seen currently.
该基金经理还表示,与1987年不同,像2008年一样,全面的价格通缩可能更为重要。金属对黄金的比率表明,10年期国库债券收益率应该为2%,而不是目前看到的3.8%水平。
Wood also said if the 10-year Treasury note yield was around 2% now, the Fed funds rate should be closer to 1%. The Fed rate is currently perched at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%.
伍德还表示,如果10年期国库债券收益率现在约为2%,联邦基金利率应该更接近1%。联邦基金利率目前高居5.25%-5.50%的22年高位。
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) traded up 1.69% at $526.15, according to Benzinga Pro data.
根据Benzinga Pro数据,SPDR标普500指数交易型证券信托(NYSE:SPY)上涨1.69%至526.15美元。
- Strategist Warns 'There's A Serious Collapse That's Coming' After Monday's Global Market Crash: 'Tons And Tons Of Yen Carry Trades...Have To Be Closed Out'
- 策略师警告道:“在周一的全球市场崩盘后,有一场严重的崩溃即将到来:大量的日元套利交易……必须被平仓。”
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Photo: shutterstock