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Is Toly BreadLtd (SHSE:603866) A Risky Investment?

Is Toly BreadLtd (SHSE:603866) A Risky Investment?

Toly Bread Ltd (SHSE:603866) 是一项具有风险的投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/08/07 06:26

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Toly Bread Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603866) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

沃伦·巴菲特曾说:“波动性与风险远非同义词。”因此,当您考虑任何给定股票的风险时,需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务会使一家公司陷入困境。我们可以看到,中粮面包股份有限公司(SHSE: 603866)的业务确实使用了债务,但更重要的问题是:这些债务带来了多大的风险?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

债务带来了什么风险?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

一般来说,当一家公司难以通过筹集资本或自身现金流轻松偿还债务时,负债才会成为一个真正的问题。如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷款人可以接管企业。然而,更普遍(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,一家公司必须以低廉的股票价格稀释股东,以便控制债务。当然,许多公司使用债务来资助增长,而不会产生任何负面后果。考虑一家公司的债务水平时,第一步是考虑现金和债务的总和。

What Is Toly BreadLtd's Debt?

中粮面包债务情况是什么?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Toly BreadLtd had CN¥1.17b of debt, up from CN¥777.4m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥371.1m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥795.6m.

如下所示,截至2024年3月末,中粮面包有限公司的债务总额为11.7亿元人民币,比一年前的7.774亿元人民币增长。点击图片以了解更多详情。由于它拥有3.711亿元人民币的现金储备,因此其净债务较少,约为7.956亿元人民币。

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SHSE:603866 Debt to Equity History August 6th 2024
SHSE:603866股权负债历史纪录如下(截至2024年8月6日)

A Look At Toly BreadLtd's Liabilities

我们可以从最近的资产负债表中看到,中粮面包有限公司的应付短期债务总额为1.31亿元人民币,应付长期债务总额为6079万元人民币。另一方面,它有3.711亿元人民币的现金和4,688万元人民币的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,其负债总额超过其现金和(短期)应收账款的总和约1.08亿元人民币。

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Toly BreadLtd had liabilities of CN¥1.31b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥607.9m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥371.1m and CN¥468.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥1.08b.

考虑到中粮面包有限公司的市值为9.02亿元人民币,很难相信这些负债会带来多大的威胁。但是,我们认为值得关注它的资产负债表强度,因为它可能会随着时间推移而发生变化。

Given Toly BreadLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥9.02b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.

中粮面包有限公司的净债务仅为其EBITDA的0.85倍。其EBIt轻松覆盖其利息支出,规模为25.5倍。因此,您可以认为它受到的债务威胁不比大象受到老鼠威胁。另一方面,中粮面包有限公司的EBIt在过去十二个月中下降了9.8%。如果这种下降持续下去,显然会使债务更难承受。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是开始的明显位置。但是,未来的收益总决定了中粮面包有限公司维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您关注未来,可以查看此免费报告,其中包含分析师的利润预测。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

通过查看公司的净债务与利息、税、折旧、摊销前利润(EBITDA)之比以及它的利息费用(利息覆盖率)可以衡量一个公司的债务负担与收益能力。因此,我们考虑将债务与有无计算折旧和摊销费用的收益相对比。

Toly BreadLtd's net debt is only 0.85 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 25.5 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. On the other hand, Toly BreadLtd saw its EBIT drop by 9.8% in the last twelve months. That sort of decline, if sustained, will obviously make debt harder to handle. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Toly BreadLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

最后,尽管税务部门可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,值得检查的是EBIt有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去的三年中,中粮面包有限公司报告的自由现金流值为其EBIt的3.9%,这是相当低的。那种无力的现金转换水平削弱了其管理和偿还债务的能力。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Toly BreadLtd reported free cash flow worth 3.9% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.

根据我们的分析,中粮面包有限公司的利息保障倍数应表明它不会在债务方面遇到太多麻烦。但是,我们上面提到的其他因素并不那么令人鼓舞。特别是,将EBIt转换为自由现金流使我们感到不安。查看所有这些数据使我们对中粮面包有限公司的债务水平感到有些谨慎。虽然债务确实具有更高潜在回报的好处,但我们认为股东们应该考虑债务水平如何增加股票的风险。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是开始的明显位置。但是,最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表范围的风险。

Our View

我们的观点

On our analysis Toly BreadLtd's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. In particular, conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gives us cold feet. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Toly BreadLtd's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Toly BreadLtd you should be aware of.

根据我们的分析,中粮面包有限公司的利息保障倍数应表明它不会在债务方面遇到太多麻烦。但是,我们上面提到的其他因素并不那么令人鼓舞。特别是,将EBIt转换为自由现金流使我们感到不安。查看所有这些数据使我们对中粮面包有限公司的债务水平感到有些谨慎。虽然债务确实具有更高潜在回报的好处,但我们认为股东们应该考虑债务水平如何增加股票的风险。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是开始的明显位置。但是,最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表范围的风险。案例证明:我们已经发现Toly BreadLtd存在1个警告信号,您应该知道。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果您是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,立即发现我们独家的净现金增长股票列表。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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