Time For A Contrarian Bet On China, As Chinese Stocks Suffer Their Worst Week Since February
Time For A Contrarian Bet On China, As Chinese Stocks Suffer Their Worst Week Since February
Magnificent Seven Stocks Aren't The Only Casualties
科技七巨头的股票不是唯一的受害者
While most investors' attention has been drawn to the nearly $2 trillion shaved off of American mega cap tech stocks' market caps this month...
大多数投资者的注意力都被这个月美国超大市值科技股市值蒸发的近2万亿吸引了...
Chinese mega caps have been getting hammered too. As Barchart noted on X, this has been their worst week since last winter.
中国超大市值公司也一直受到重创。正如Barchart在X上所指出的,这是它们自去年冬天以来表现最糟糕的一周。
Flashback To Last Winter
回忆去年冬天
Back in late January, we saw this headline on ZeroHedge: "China Stocks HIt Rock Bottom". We did some research on the big Chinese stocks, and decided Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) had the strongest fundamentals. We posted a trade alert about it the same day...
回到去年1月底,我们在ZeroHedge上看到了这个标题:“中国股市触底反弹”。我们对中国几家大型股票进行了一些研究,并决定阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司(NYSE:BABA)基本面最强。当天我们发布了一份交易警报...
Though we ended up deciding to wait until after BABA's earnings the next month to place the trade. We ended up making 100% on that trade over the next few months.
虽然最后我们决定等到下个月BABA的财报之后再进行交易。在接下来的几个月里,我们在这项交易中赚了100%。
- Call spread on Alibaba (BABA 1.32%↑). Entered at a net debit of $2.25 on 2/8/2024; exited at a net credit of $4.50 on 5/3/2024. Profit: 100%.
- 阿里巴巴的看涨期权价差(BABA 1.32%↑)。于2024年2月8日以净支出2.25美元的价格进入,于2024年5月3日以净信用额4.50美元的价格退出。利润:100%。
Alibaba Doesn't Look Like The Best Bet Today
今天阿里巴巴看起来不是最好的选择
Here's how Alibaba's fundamentals look, according to selected metrics from Chartmill (these are all on a scale of 0-to-10, with 10 being the best).
这里是阿里巴巴的基本面,根据来自Chartmill的选择指标(这些指标均为0到10的尺度,10为最佳)。
- Overall Fundamental Rating: 5
- Profitability: 6
- Health: 5
- Growth: 5
- Valuation: 7
- 总的基本评级:5
- 盈利能力:6
- 健康状况:5
- 成长性:5
- 估值:7
Apple Doesn't Either
苹果公司也不是最佳选择
If you're curious how a Magnificent Seven stock compares on those metrics, let's look at Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL):
如果你想知道科技七巨头的这些指标如何相比,让我们看看苹果公司(NASDAQ:AAPL):
- Overall Fundamental Rating: 6
- Profitability: 9
- Health: 8
- Growth: 4
- Valuation: 2
- 整体基本面评级: 6
- 盈利能力: 9
- 健康: 8
- 成长性:4
- 估值: 2
This Chinese Stock Does Look Like A Good Bet
这支中国股票看起来是一个很好的选择
In contrast, here's how the Chinese stock we're bullish on now compares:
相比之下,以下是我们目前看好的中国股票的比较:
- Overall Fundamental Rating: 8
- Profitability: 8
- Health: 9
- Growth: 8
- Valuation: 8
- 总体基本面评级:8
- 盈利能力:8
- 健康度:9
- 成长性:8
- 估值:8
This company beat on both top and bottom lines when it reported earnings in May, but its shares are down more than 20% since. The options market expects a movement of about 11% up or down after its next earnings release in August.
该公司在五月份公布收益报告时,收入和利润都超出预期,但自此以来股票下跌了超过20%。期权市场预计其下一个收益公告后涨跌幅度将约为11%。
The trade we placed on Friday is a bet that the stock will be up about 10% from here by the end of August. If we're right, we'll make about 200% on that trade (and if we're wrong, we could lose up to 100%).
我们周五开的仓位是押注这只股票到8月底将上涨约10%。如果我们猜对,我们将在这次交易中赚取约200%的利润(如果我们猜错,我们最多可能会亏损100%)。