Wynn Resorts, Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Wynn Resorts, Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.6% to US$74.85 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$1.7b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 28% to hit US$0.91 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
自上一季度公布业绩数据后的一周,永利度假村有限公司(Wynn Resorts,股票代码:纳斯达克WYNN)股票下跌了9.6%至每股74.85美元,股东们应该感到有些失望。总体来看,这是一个相当糟糕的结果。尽管17亿美元的收入与分析师预测相符,但法定收益大大不足,每股盈利预计达到0.91美元,低于估计值28%。公布业绩数据后,分析师们已根据新的收入模型对其进行了更新,值得关注的是,他们是否认为公司前景发生了巨大变化,还是说一切照旧。我们认为,读者们会发现分析师们对未来一年的最新(法定)业绩预测很有趣。
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Taking into account the latest results, Wynn Resorts' 16 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$7.24b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 35% to US$5.14 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$7.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.35 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
考虑到最新的业绩,永利度假村有限公司的16位分析师目前预计2024年的收入为72.4亿美元,大致与过去12个月的数据相符。每股法定收益预计在同期会下跌35%,为5.14美元。然而,在最新业绩公布前,分析师们曾预计2024年的收入为72.9亿美元,每股收益(EPS)为5.35美元。最新业绩公布后,分析师们对该业务变得稍微消极了一些,在其下一年的每股收益数据上有所下调。这表明虽然估值方面存在一些分歧,但分析师们对该股票并不完全分裂,不将其视为成功或失败的情况。
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.9% to US$116, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Wynn Resorts at US$145 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$87.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
意外的是,共识价目标下降了5.9%至116美元,分析师们显然将更低的盈利预测与股价的表现明确联系起来。然而,过度关注单一价格目标可能并不明智,因为共识目标实际上是分析师价格目标的平均值。因此,一些投资者喜欢查看估计值的范围,以了解公司估值方面是否存在分歧的意见。目前,最看好的分析师将永利度假村的股票价值定为145美元,而最看衰的分析师将其股价定为87.00美元。这表明虽然估值方面存在一些分歧,但分析师们对该股票并不完全分裂,不将其视为成功或失败的情况。
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Wynn Resorts'historical trends, as the 3.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 3.2% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 9.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that Wynn Resorts is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
当然,从行业本身的角度看待这些预测也是一个方法。我们可以从最新的预测中推断,预计永利度假村的历史趋势将继续,因为到2024年底的年化收入增长率为3.7%,大致与过去5年的3.2%年增长率相当。与整个行业相比(总体上),分析师们的估计表明,收入将以每年9.6%的速度增长。因此,很明显,永利度假村的增长预期将慢于同一行业的类似公司。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Wynn Resorts' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
最重要的是,分析师们下调了每股收益的预测,这表明结果公布后情绪有明显下滑。幸运的是,分析师们也重申了他们的收入预测,表明收入符合预期。虽然我们的数据表明,永利度假村的营收表现不如整个行业。此外,分析师还下调了他们的价格目标,表明最新消息使人们对该业务的内在价值更加悲观。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Wynn Resorts going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
继续这一思路,我们认为公司的长期前景比明年的收益更重要。我们对永利度假村的预测到2026年,并且您可以在我们的平台上免费查看这些预测。
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Wynn Resorts you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit concerning.
当然,您应该始终考虑风险。例如,我们发现永利度假村存在4个预警信号,您应该了解其中的2个问题。
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