As Nvidia Leads Magnificent 7 Volatility, Analyst Says These Mega-Caps Are Poised To Outperform Small-Caps — But There's A Catch
As Nvidia Leads Magnificent 7 Volatility, Analyst Says These Mega-Caps Are Poised To Outperform Small-Caps — But There's A Catch
Mega-cap stocks, led by the Magnificent Seven companies, continue to be at the forefront, whether it is a rally or a pullback, underlining their undue influence on the market. Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Erik Woodring on Wednesday delved into the damage the sell-off has inflicted on the mega-cap space and the outlook for these stocks.
无论是上涨还是下跌，行业板块科技七巨头依然处于市场的前沿，凸显了它们在市场中的过度影响力。在这种背景下，摩根士丹利的分析师Erik Woodring周三深入分析了抛售对行业板块科技七巨头的影响以及这些股票的前景。
Valuation Not So Depressed? The Magnificent Seven valuations are now 30% off the trailing five-year peak but still 50% above the trailing five-year trough, said Morgan Stanley analysts in the note. "This compares to the NASDAQ 100 that is 20% off its T5Y valuation high and 37% above its T5Y valuation low, and the Russell 2000 that is 56% off its T5Y valuation highs but 50% above its T5Y valuation low," the analysts said.
估值并不那么低迷？Morgan Stanley的分析师在报告中表示，科技七巨头的估值已经比5年前的价高30%，但仍比5年前的价低50%。"相比之下，纳斯达克100的估值已经下跌了20%，比5年前的估值高出37%；罗素2000指数则跌幅达56%，但仍比5年前的价高50%",分析师指出。
The group comprises seven of the biggest mega-cap stocks, belonging to the IT and communication services sectors, as well as the electric-vehicle industry. The constituents are:
这个组合由7家最大的行业板块科技七巨头组成，分别属于信息技术和通讯服务行业，以及电动汽车行业。成分股如下所示：
- Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA)
- Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT)
- Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META)
- Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
- Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG)
- Amazon, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)
- Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
- 英伟达公司（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）
- 微软公司（纳斯达克股票代码MSFT）
- Meta Platforms, Inc.（NASDAQ：META）
- 苹果公司（纳斯达克股票代码AAPL）
- Alphabet公司（纳斯达克股票代码GOOGL、GOOG）
- 亚马逊公司（纳斯达克股票代码AMZN）
- 特斯拉公司（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）
Attractive On Future Growth: While adjusting for future earnings per share growth, the group traded at a 40% discount to the trailing five-year price-earnings growth ratio, said Woodring. This, according to the analyst, is the critical distinction in a soft-landing scenario and supports the case for the Magnificent Seven stocks outperforming small-caps.
未来增长值得期待：Erik Woodring指出，经过未来每股收益增长的调整，该组合股票的股价增长率与利润增长比仍存在40%的折扣。分析师称，这是软着陆的关键区别，支持科技七巨头股票表现优于小盘股。
Following the recent stock market sell-off, the Magnificent Seven stocks were down 9% month-to-date through Aug. 5, on average, the analyst noted. This compared to the S&P 500's 6% decline and the Nasdaq's 8% decline, he said.
分析师指出，经过8月5日至当月的交易，这些行业板块科技七巨头的股票平均下跌了9%。相比之下，他指出标普500指数下跌了6%，纳斯达克下跌了8%。
The analyst noted that Tesla and Nvidia were the relative underperformers in the group, flat for the month-to-date period.
分析师指出，特斯拉和英伟达在这个组合中表现相对较差，这个月迄今为止持平。
"As a result, we'd conclude that while Mag 7 valuations still face significant downside valuation risk in a black swan or recession scenario, current Mag 7 valuations relative to future growth prospects are attractive after the recent drawdown," Morgan Stanley said.
摩根士丹利表示：尽管科技七巨头在黑天鹅事件或陷入经济衰退的情景下仍面临着显著的估值风险，但是在最近的抛售行情之后，与未来的增长前景相比，科技七巨头的当前估值仍然很有吸引力。
The view comes amid expectations that the mega-cap momentum will moderate, potentially giving the lead to small-caps, as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates, beginning in September. Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests the Mag 7 rally may have further leg as long as the economy averts a recession or hard landing.
这一观点出现在市场普遍预计联邦储备委员会将从9月开始降息，这场行业板块的势头可能会有所减弱，可能为小盘股赢得领先位置。摩根士丹利的分析表明，除非经济陷入衰退或硬着陆，否则科技七巨头的行情可能还有进一步发展的空间。
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) climbed 0.64% to $450.94 in premarket trading Friday and the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NASDAQ:MAGS) rose 1.35% to $420.70, according to Benzinga Pro data. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) gained 0.72% to $208.38.
根据Benzinga Pro数据，纳指100etf-invesco qqq trust（纳斯达克股票代码QQQ）周五盘前交易上涨0.64%，报450.94美元；罗德希尔科技七巨头ETF（纳斯达克股票代码MAGS）涨1.35%，报420.70美元；瑞信罗素2000指数etf（纽约证券交易所股票代码IWM）上涨0.72%，报208.38美元。
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