FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGEN) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Revenue crushed expectations at US$51m, beating expectations by 46%. FibroGen reported a statutory loss of US$0.16 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, FibroGen's two analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$174.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 45% to US$0.92. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$153.5m and losses of US$1.29 per share in 2024. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

The consensus price target fell 66%, to US$0.60, suggesting that the analysts remain pessimistic on the company, despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2024. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 13% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 18% annually. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, FibroGen is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 6 warning signs for FibroGen you should be aware of, and 3 of them don't sit too well with us.

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