Earnings Beat: Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AQST) Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Forecasts
Earnings Beat: Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AQST) Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Forecasts
A week ago, Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AQST) came out with a strong set of second-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$20m exceeding analyst forecasts by 62%, and statutory losses of US$0.03 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
一个星期前,aquestive therapeutics公司(纳斯达克:aqst)发布了一组强劲的第二季度财务数据,这可能会导致该股票的重估。这些成果令人印象深刻,营业收入达到了2000万美元,超出了分析师预测的62%,而法定亏损为0.03美元,也比分析师的预测要小得多。分析师通常会在每个季度财报后更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对该公司的看法是否发生了变化,或者是否存在要注意的新问题。考虑到这一点,我们收集了最新的法定预测,以了解分析师对明年的预期。
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After the latest results, the consensus from Aquestive Therapeutics' eight analysts is for revenues of US$54.6m in 2024, which would reflect a measurable 6.5% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.48 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$49.8m and losses of US$0.54 per share in 2024. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Aquestive Therapeutics' future following the latest consensus numbers, with a cut to the loss per share forecasts in particular.
在最新的结果公布后,aquestive therapeutics的8位分析师预计,2024年的营业收入为5460万美元,相对于去年表现下降了6.5%。每股亏损预计将激增,达到0.48美元。然而,在最新的盈利公告之前,分析师曾预测2024年的营业收入为4980万美元,亏损为0.54美元/股。因此,似乎针对aquestive therapeutics未来的乐观情绪有所增强,尤其是股价下跌的预测。
Yet despite these upgrades, the analysts cut their price target 6.2% to US$8.56, implicitly signalling that the ongoing losses are likely to weigh negatively on Aquestive Therapeutics' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Aquestive Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$13.00 and the most bearish at US$5.50 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
尽管进行了这些升级,但分析师将其目标价降低了6.2%,间接暗示持续的亏损可能会对aquestive therapeutics的估值产生负面影响。然而,从这些数据中我们也可以得出其它结论,因为一些投资者在评估分析师的股价目标时也喜欢考虑分散的预测。关于aquestive therapeutics存在一些变化观点,其中最看好的分析师估值为13.00美元/股,最看淡的为5.50美元/股。这是一个相当广泛的估值区间,这意味着分析师预测业务可能会出现各种各样的可能性。
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 0.8% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 13% decline in revenue until the end of 2024. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Aquestive Therapeutics to suffer worse than the wider industry.
获得更多上下文信息的一种方式是查看这些预测与过去业绩的比较,以及同行业其他公司的表现如何。过去5年,营业收入年均下降约0.8%。更糟糕的是,预测实际上是在预测营业收入下降将加速,估计至2024年底每年下降13%。相比之下,我们的数据显示,在同一行业中(有分析师覆盖的公司)的其他公司预计营业收入每年增长9.4%。因此,尽管营业收入下降,分析师还预计,aquestive therapeutics的表现将比整个行业更糟糕。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
最重要的是,分析师确认了明年每股亏损的预期。尽管预计增长速度比整个行业还要慢,他们也升级了对明年营业收入的预期。此外,分析师还下调了目标价,暗示最新消息导致了对业务内在价值更加悲观的看法。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Aquestive Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
尽管如此,我们仍然认为业务的长期轨迹对投资者来说更加重要。我们有多个aquestive therapeutics分析师的预测,一直到2026年,可以免费在我们的平台上查看。
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Aquestive Therapeutics (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
即便如此,仍需要考虑投资风险的隐患。我们已经确定了2个警示信号存在于aquestive therapeutics (其中至少有1个让我们有些不安),了解这些风险应该是你投资过程的一部分。
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