It's been a mediocre week for Innovid Corp. (NYSE:CTV) shareholders, with the stock dropping 18% to US$1.68 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$38m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.07 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Innovid's three analysts is for revenues of US$160.0m in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 7.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 22% to US$0.11. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$160.8m and losses of US$0.047 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a regrettable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target held steady at US$2.83, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Innovid analyst has a price target of US$3.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2.50. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Innovid's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Innovid's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Innovid. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Innovid. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Innovid analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Innovid is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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