Results: Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. Confounded Analyst Expectations With A Surprise Profit
Results: Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. Confounded Analyst Expectations With A Surprise Profit
Shareholders might have noticed that Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:KPTI) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.2% to US$0.84 in the past week. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and earnings both coming in very strong. Revenues were 18% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$43m, while the company also delivered a surprise statutory profit, against analyst expectations of a loss. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
股东可能已经注意到,Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.(NASDAQ:KPTI)上周发布了第二季度的业绩报告。然而,早期反应并不积极,过去一周股价下跌9.2%,至0.84美元。这是一份扎实的财报,营收和盈利均非常强劲。营收比分析师预测的高18%,达到4300万美元,同时公司也出乎意料地实现了盈利,而分析师预计会亏损。对于投资者而言,收益是一个重要的时间,因为这可以跟踪公司的业绩,查看分析师对明年的预测,并查看对公司的情绪是否发生变化。考虑到这一点,我们已收集了最新的法定预测,以查看分析师对明年的预期。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Karyopharm Therapeutics' six analysts is for revenues of US$152.6m in 2024. This would reflect a satisfactory 4.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$0.69. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$145.3m and losses of US$1.23 per share in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a considerable decrease in loss per share in particular.
考虑到最新的结果,Karyopharm Therapeutics的六位分析师的目前共识是,2024年的营收将达到1.526亿美元,这将反映出过去12个月的营收增长了4.8%。每股亏损预计将略有改善,降至0.69美元。在此财报公布之前,分析师们曾预计2024年的营收为1.453亿美元,每股亏损为1.23美元。情绪有了相当大的改善,分析师们提高了营收预期,并在每股亏损方面做出了相当大的降低。
The consensus price target fell 14%, to US$4.36, suggesting that the analysts remain pessimistic on the company, despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Karyopharm Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$7.00 and the most bearish at US$2.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
共识目标价下降了14%,至4.36美元,这表明分析师对该公司仍然持悲观态度,尽管业绩和收入前景有所改善。共识目标价只是各个分析师目标的平均值,因此了解底层估计的范围有所帮助。对于Karyopharm Therapeutics存在一些不同的看法,最看好的分析师将其价值估计为7.00美元,而最看淡的分析师则将其估价为每股2.00美元。正如您所看到的,估值范围很大,最低估值只相当于最看好估值的不到一半,这表明分析师对这家企业的业绩有着非常不同的看法。考虑到这一点,我们不会过多地依赖共识目标价,因为它只是个平均数,而分析师之间在业务上存在着深刻的分歧。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Karyopharm Therapeutics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 9.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 22% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Karyopharm Therapeutics is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
现在看看更大的图片,我们可以对比一个公司的表现与行业增长预期。很明显,人们期望 Karyopharm Therapeutics的营收增长将大幅放缓,预计到2024年底, 年化营收增长率将达到9.7%。这与过去五年的历史增长率22%相比。将其与行业中其他公司(具有分析师预测)进行比较,行业中的公司预计年均营收增长18%。考虑到增长放缓的预测,显然Karyopharm Therapeutics也预计增长速度将慢于其他行业参与者。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Karyopharm Therapeutics' future valuation.
最明显的结论是,分析师没有改变对明年亏损的预测。尽管预计增长速度将慢于更广泛的行业,他们仍然提高了对明年收入的预测。共识目标价明显下降,分析师似乎并没有因最新的业绩而感到安心,导致对Karyopharm Therapeutics未来估值的预期更低。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Karyopharm Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
请记住,考虑更长期的业务轨迹对于投资者来说更为重要。我们有多个Karyopharm Therapeutics的分析师预测,到2026年,你可以在我们的平台上免费获得。
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Karyopharm Therapeutics you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.
但也要考虑到风险。例如,我们已经发现Karyopharm Therapeutics有3个警告迹象,您应该注意其中1个。
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