Harris Vs. Trump: Expert Says S&P 500 Trends Could Predict 2024 Presidential Election Outcome
Harris Vs. Trump: Expert Says S&P 500 Trends Could Predict 2024 Presidential Election Outcome
In the run-up to the U.S. Presidential election, the stock market's performance could serve as a reliable predictor of the election results, as per the chief technical strategist at LPL.
在美国总统选举前，股市表现可以作为LPL首席技术策略师认为的选举结果的可靠预测器。
What Happened: Adam Turnquist, LPL's chief technical strategist, stated that the S&P 500 has an 83% success rate in forecasting the victorious political party in the Presidential elections since 1928, Business Insider reported on Thursday.
发生了什么：据Business Insider 8月13日报道，LPL首席技术策略师Adam Turnquist表示，自1928年以来，标普500指数在总统选举中的胜利率达到83％，可以预测胜出的政党。
Turnquist emphasized the stock market's performance in the three months preceding the election as the key predictor.
Turnquist强调，在选举前三个月中股市的表现是关键的预测因素。
"Since 1928, whenever the S&P 500 was positive during the three months leading up to an election, the incumbent party remained in control of the White House 80% of the time," he explained.
“自1928年以来，在总统选举前三个月内标普500指数上涨时，执政党掌控白宫的概率高达80％，”他解释道。
For example, a 24.8% fall in the S&P 500 in the three months before the 2008 election indicated the Democrats' victory, led by President Barack Obama, ending the Republican's eight-year control of the White House. Likewise, a 2.3% decline in the S&P 500 before the 2016 election signaled President Donald Trump's win, ending the Democrats' eight-year rule.
例如，在2008年选举前三个月标普500指数下降24.8％预示着民主党的胜利，由总统巴拉克奥巴马领导，结束了共和党八年的执政。同样，在2016年选举前标普500指数下降2.3％，预示着唐纳德特朗普的胜利，结束了民主党八年的执政。
Why It Matters: The stock market predictor, though not perfect, is noteworthy. The S&P 500 is currently down about 0.5% since the three-month window opened on Monday, hinting at the Republicans as the likely winners in November. However, with 88 days left before the election, the market's performance and its influence on the election result are still uncertain. Earlier this year, Trump credited his lead in the polls for the market's success but later blamed Vice President Kamala Harris for its crash.
为什么这很重要：虽然不是完美的，但股市预测器是值得注意的。自周一以来，标普500指数下跌了约0.5％，暗示共和党人可能是11月的胜者。然而，在选举前还有88天，市场的表现以及其对选举结果的影响仍然不确定。今年早些时候，特朗普将其在民调中的领先优势归功于市场的成功，但后来却将副总统卡玛拉哈里斯归咎于市场崩盘。
The upcoming presidential debate on Sep. 10 between Trump and Harris could further influence the market and, potentially, the election outcome.
特朗普和哈里斯之间即将于9月10日举行的总统辩论可能会进一步影响市场，并潜在地影响选举结果。
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) that tracks the S&P 500 was trading 0.34% lower at $528.85 during Friday's pre-market while Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) was down 0.48% and was trading at $445.93 at the same time, according to Benzinga Pro.
根据Benzinga Pro的数据显示，在2020年9月11日的盘前交易中，SPDR标普500 ETF信托（纽交所：SPY）下跌0.34％，报528.85美元，而纳斯达克 100指数ETF股票（纳斯达克：QQQ）下跌0.48％，同时报445.93美元。
- Trump Vs. Harris: Veteran Pollster Says This Candidate Is Building 'Real Lead,' Riding High On Momentum Despite Economic Headwinds
- 特朗普VS哈里斯：资深民意调查专家表示，这个候选人正在建立“真正的领先优势”，尽管面临着经济逆风。
Image via Shutterstock
图片来自shutterstock。
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
本报道使用Benzinga Neuro生成，并由Pooja Rajkumari编辑