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Pulling Back 5.0% This Week, Ally Financial's NYSE:ALLY) One-year Decline in Earnings May Be Coming Into Investors Focus

Pulling Back 5.0% This Week, Ally Financial's NYSE:ALLY) One-year Decline in Earnings May Be Coming Into Investors Focus

本周下跌5.0%,ally financial的纽交所:ALLY)一年内的盈利下降可能成为投资者的焦点。
Simply Wall St ·  08/09 10:29

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. To wit, the Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE:ALLY) share price is 41% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 17% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 26% in three years.

近年来,简单地选择买基金就可以跟上市场(大致)的回报了。不过,股东选择了超越市场的公司之后,就能提高自己的回报。举个例子,阿里金融有限公司(纽交所:ALLY)股价比一年前高出41%,远超过同期市场回报约17%(不包括股息)。按照我们的标准,这是表现稳健的公司!但是,股票的长线股东进行了更为艰苦的运行,股票在三年内下跌了26%。

Although Ally Financial has shed US$620m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

尽管阿里金融本周市值减少了6.2亿美元,但是让我们来看一下它的长线基金趋势,是否能够获得回报。

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

尽管一些人继续教授有效市场假说,但已经证明市场是过度反应的动态系统,并且投资者并不总是理性的。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和股价的变化情况,我们可以了解投资者对公司的态度如何随着时间变化而变化。

Over the last twelve months, Ally Financial actually shrank its EPS by 36%.

在过去的12个月中,阿里金融的每股收益(EPS)实际下降了36%。

So we don't think that investors are paying too much attention to EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

因此,我们认为投资者并没有过多关注每股收益。由于每股收益的变化似乎与股价的变化没有关系,所以值得关注其他指标。

Unfortunately Ally Financial's fell 9.6% over twelve months. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.

遗憾的是,阿里金融在过去的12个月中下跌了9.6%,因此基本指标没有提供股价上涨的明显解释。

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

您可以看到以下收益和营收的变化情况(通过单击图像了解精确值)。

big
NYSE:ALLY Earnings and Revenue Growth August 9th 2024
纽交所:ALLY财报和营收增长2024年8月9日

Ally Financial is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Ally Financial will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)

阿里金融为投资者所熟知,聪明的分析师们也尝试预测其未来的利润水平。所以,查看分析师对阿里金融未来将获得的利润预测(免费分析师共识预测),这非常有意义。

What About Dividends?

那么分红怎么样呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Ally Financial's TSR for the last 1 year was 46%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

除了测量股价回报之外,投资者还应该考虑总股东回报(TSR)。TSR包括任何分拆或折价募集资金的价值,以及任何分红,基于假设分红会被再投资。可以认为,TSR可以更全面地呈现股票的回报情况。实际上,阿里金融的TSR过去1年为46%,超过了前面提到的股价回报。毫无疑问,股息支付很大程度上解释了这种背离!

A Different Perspective

不同的观点

It's good to see that Ally Financial has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 46% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 9%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Ally Financial better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Ally Financial has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

很高兴看到阿里金融在过去的12个月中为股东提供了46%的总股东回报。而且这一数字也包括分红。这种收益比过去5年的年度股东回报率9%要好。因此,目前市场情绪看上去非常积极,如果不仔细留意,就可能错失机会。跟踪股价的长期表现总是很有趣的,但要更好地了解阿里金融,我们需要考虑许多其他因素。例如承担风险——在我们看来,阿里金融有1个警告标志需要引起投资者的重视。

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

对于那些喜欢寻找获胜投资的人来说,最近有内部购买的低估公司免费列表可能是一个很好的选择。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

请注意,本文所引述的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

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