With the business potentially at an important milestone, we thought we'd take a closer look at Geron Corporation's (NASDAQ:GERN) future prospects. Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. The US$2.7b market-cap company posted a loss in its most recent financial year of US$184m and a latest trailing-twelve-month loss of US$220m leading to an even wider gap between loss and breakeven. As path to profitability is the topic on Geron's investors mind, we've decided to gauge market sentiment. In this article, we will touch on the expectations for the company's growth and when analysts expect it to become profitable.

Geron is bordering on breakeven, according to the 5 American Biotechs analysts. They anticipate the company to incur a final loss in 2025, before generating positive profits of US$111m in 2026. Therefore, the company is expected to breakeven roughly 2 years from now. What rate will the company have to grow year-on-year in order to breakeven on this date? Using a line of best fit, we calculated an average annual growth rate of 66%, which signals high confidence from analysts. Should the business grow at a slower rate, it will become profitable at a later date than expected.

Given this is a high-level overview, we won't go into details of Geron's upcoming projects, however, keep in mind that by and large biotechs, depending on the stage of product development, have irregular periods of cash flow. This means that a high growth rate is not unusual, especially if the company is currently in an investment period.

One thing we'd like to point out is that Geron has no debt on its balance sheet, which is rare for a loss-making biotech, which usually has a high level of debt relative to its equity. This means that the company has been operating purely on its equity investment and has no debt burden. This aspect reduces the risk around investing in the loss-making company.

Next Steps:

There are too many aspects of Geron to cover in one brief article, but the key fundamentals for the company can all be found in one place – Geron's company page on Simply Wall St. We've also compiled a list of key factors you should further research:

1. Valuation: What is Geron worth today? Has the future growth potential already been factored into the price? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether Geron is currently mispriced by the market.
2. Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on Geron's board and the CEO's background.
3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.