Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Eli Lilly delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, hitting US$11b-13% above indicated-andUS$3.28-21% above forecasts- respectively This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Eli Lilly's 28 analysts is for revenues of US$46.3b in 2024. This reflects a solid 19% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 85% to US$15.08. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$43.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.26 in 2024. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Eli Lilly's future following the latest results, with a decent improvement in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$962, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Eli Lilly at US$1,150 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$580. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Eli Lilly's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Eli Lilly's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 41% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 10% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Eli Lilly is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Eli Lilly's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$962, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Eli Lilly analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Eli Lilly that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.