It's been a mediocre week for New Fortress Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:NFE) shareholders, with the stock dropping 19% to US$13.00 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues missed expectations, with revenue of US$428m falling 16% short of forecasts. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with New Fortress Energy reporting a statutory loss of US$0.44 per share, where the analysts were expecting a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, New Fortress Energy's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$2.33b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 48% to US$0.61 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.51 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 14% to US$29.89, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values New Fortress Energy at US$50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$17.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the New Fortress Energy's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.5% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 45% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.8% per year. It's pretty clear that New Fortress Energy's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for New Fortress Energy. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of New Fortress Energy's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for New Fortress Energy going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 5 warning signs for New Fortress Energy (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.