Markets Experience Best And Worst Days Since 2022: What's Next In Wall Street's Rollercoaster Ride?
Markets Experience Best And Worst Days Since 2022: What's Next In Wall Street's Rollercoaster Ride?
Last week, investors faced a rollercoaster with dramatic market swings. What can we expect next for the financial markets?
上周，投资者面临市场大幅波动的过山车，未来金融市场能有什么预期？
The Recap: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) started 2024 up as much as 19.5% through the middle of July, a historic pace. In the second half of the month, the index retracted slightly as investors called a top on the Big Tech trade.
简报：SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(纽交所:SPY) 从2024年初至7月中旬涨幅高达19.5%(创历史记录) 。月底后半段，随着投资者认为大型科技公司交易的顶部已到，指数略微回落。
Then on Aug. 2, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released an especially weak July jobs report, renewing recession fears. The S&P 500 fell 1.86% that Friday.
8月2日，劳工统计局发布了一个特别疲弱的7月就业报告，重新点燃了衰退的恐惧。S&P 500在那个星期五下跌了1.86%。
On Monday, the index plunged 2.91%. The fall, the S&P 500's largest since September 2022, accompanied the collapse of the yen carry trade and the intensification of recession anxieties.
星期一，指数暴跌了2.91%。随着日元融资交易的崩溃和经济衰退的不安加剧，这是S&P 500自2022年9月以来的最大跌幅。
On Tuesday, the index rose 0.92%, then on Wednesday it fell 0.67%. Thursday's trading session was marked by a gain of 2.31%, the S&P 500's best day since November 2022.
星期二，指数上涨了0.92%，然后在星期三下跌了0.67%。星期四的交易中，指数上涨了2.31%，S&P 500自2022年11月以来的最佳一天。
The NASDAQ Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) saw even bigger swings.
纳斯达克纳指100etf-Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) 的波动幅度更大。
Historical Precedent: Wild periods of gains and losses are not unusual in the markets, though they usually go along with macroeconomic uncertainty, according to data from Yahoo Finance. The market's sustained period of stability from late 2022 onward makes the recent price action especially noteworthy.
历史先例：根据雅虎财经的数据，市场的收益和损失剧烈波动在市场上并不罕见，尤其是与宏观经济不确定性相呼应。市场在2022年底后连续稳定的时期使最近的价格戏剧尤为引人注目。
The most striking example of frenzied buying and selling was COVID-19's onset in 2020. The S&P 500 first faced a 10% correction in the week of Feb. 24-28. Investors bought the dip; the S&P 500 bounced 4.3% on March 2, lost 2.86% on March 3 and gained 4.2% on March 4.
购买和卖出的疯狂示例是2020年COVID-19的爆发。S&P 500在2月24日至28日的那一周首次面临了10%的调整。投资者买了低价，3月2日S&P 500上涨了4.3%，3月3日下跌了2.86%，3月4日上涨了4.2%。
From there, chaos ensued. The S&P 500 dipped further on March 5 and 6 before falling nearly 8% on March 9. The next day, it appreciated 5.1%. Then it shed 4.8% and 9.6% on successive days. On March 13, the S&P 500 added 8.5%. On the next trading day, the index fell a historic 10.9%.
从那以后，混乱就开始了。S&P 500在3月5日和6日进一步下跌，然后在3月9日下跌了近8%。第二天，它上涨了5.1%。接下来的两天分别下跌了4.8%和9.6%。3月13日，S&P 500上涨了8.5%。在接下来的交易日，指数出现了历史性的10.9%下跌。
Investors were treated to a period of sustained volatility through April.
投资者经历了一个持续振荡的时期，直到4月。
Similar price action, albeit to a lesser magnitude, could be observed from April to December 2022. The market's behavior was accompanied by rapid hikes in the federal funds rate and the inversion of the yield curve.
从2022年4月至12月，同样的价格波动，不过规模较小。这样的市场行为伴随着联邦基金利率的快速上升和收益率曲线反转。
The 2008 financial crisis is another comparable example. The market sustained daily losses of as much as 9.84% and gains as high as 14.52% shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September. Volatility fizzled out in mid-to-late 2009.
2008年 financial crisis 是另一个可比较的例子。9月雷曼兄弟破产后不久，市场每天损失高达9.84%和涨幅高达14.52%。波动在2009年中期至晚期消失。
What's Next?: The lesson learned is that volatility generally follows volatility.
下一步会怎样？：吸取的教训是，波动通常跟随波动。
The same behavior could follow in the coming weeks — investors will closely watch macroeconomic indicators, company earnings, a Federal Reserve interest rate decision and geopolitical conflicts. Any aberrations, positive or negative, could result in a dramatic price action.
在未来几周，同样的行为可能会出现——投资者将密切关注宏观经济指标、公司收益、联邦利率决策和地缘政治冲突。任何积极或消极的异常都可能导致剧烈的价格变动。
It is also worth noting that 2024 is an election year, which typically leads to additional volatility in the markets. The news cycle has been particularly fast this summer and will likely intensify leading up to the November elections.
值得注意的是，2024年是选举年，这通常会导致市场上的额外波动。新闻周期在今年夏天特别快，预计将在11月选举前加剧。
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
图像由Midjourney通过人工智能创建。