In the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election, current market sentiment suggests that a victory for Donald Trump would be bullish for crypto assets, while a win for Kamala Harris is perceived as bearish.
What Happened: A Bernstein report on Monday highlights the emergence of Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, as a key indicator of election trends.
With over $500 million in bets placed, Polymarket has become the most liquid election market this season, capturing over 80% market share.
As of the latest data, Polymarket odds show Harris leading Trump by approximately 6%, with Harris at 52% and Trump at 46%.
This shift in favor of Harris has coincided with a period of weakness in the crypto markets, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) unable to reclaim its previous June highs of around $70,000.
Bernstein analysts noted this correlation, highlighting that a Republican win is seen as likely to provide tailwinds.
The Trump campaign has been vocal about its pro-crypto stance, promising favorable policies for Bitcoin and crypto innovation.
In contrast, the Harris campaign's approach to crypto regulation is perceived as less clear, leading to some uncertainty in the market.
Also Read: Copper Expands Institutional Crypto Services With Core Partnership
Why It Matters: The report also compares Polymarket trends with traditional polling data, noting that both currently show a close race.
However, Polymarket's liquidity in swing state predictions remains relatively thin compared to its national outcome markets.
Analysts expect the Bitcoin market to remain range-bound until clearer election signals emerge, likely closer to the presidential debates in September.
The cryptocurrency recently touched $61,000 before selling off to around $58,000 and recovering back above $59,000, reflecting the market's current uncertainty.
As the election approaches, market participants will be watching closely to see if blockchain-based prediction markets like Polymarket prove to have more predictive power than traditional polls, and how the crypto market reacts to these signals.
What's Next: The evolving relationship between the U.S. election and cryptocurrency markets will also be a key topic at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where experts will discuss the broader implications of political outcomes on digital assets and blockchain technology.
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在美国总统选举期间，目前的市场情绪表明，唐纳德·特朗普的胜利对加密资产看好，而卡玛拉·哈里斯的胜利被视为看淡。
Bernstein报告周一突出了Polymarket这个基于加密货币的预测市场的出现，作为选举趋势的关键指标。
在超过5000万美元的投注中，Polymarket成为了本赛季最具流动性的选举市场，占据了80%以上的市场份额。
截至最新数据，Polymarket的赔率显示哈里斯领先特朗普约6%，哈里斯占52%，特朗普占46%。
哈里斯领先的这种转变与加密货币市场的疲弱期重合，比特币（CRYPTO: BTC）无法重新夺回其6月份高达约7万美元的价格。
Bernstein分析师指出了这种相关性，强调共和党胜选被视为可能会产生顺风之势。
特朗普竞选团队公开表示支持加密货币，承诺为比特币和加密创新提供有利政策。
相比之下，哈里斯的加密货币监管方法被认为不太清晰，导致市场存在一些不确定性。
另请阅读：铜通过与核心合作伙伴关系扩展机构加密货币服务。
为什么重要：该报告还将Polymarket趋势与传统民调数据进行比较，指出两者目前都显示有激烈的竞争。
然而，相对于其全国结果市场，Polymarket在摇摆州选举预测方面的流动性仍然相对较弱。
分析师预计，直到9月的总统辩论之前，比特币市场仍将范围有限，直到选举信号更加明确为止。
这种不确定性反映在了加密货币最近触及61000美元后的卖出，回落至约58000美元，然后重新上涨至超过59000美元的价格。
随着选举的临近，市场参与者将密切关注基于区块链的预测市场，例如Polymarket，是否证明具有比传统民意调查更具预测性，以及加密货币市场如何对这些信号作出反应。
下一步是：美国选举和加密货币市场之间的不断发展的关系，也将是Benzinga数字资产未来活动的一个关键议题，该活动将于11月19日举行，届时专家将讨论政治结果对数字资产和区块链技术的更广泛影响。
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