Wall Street Set To Rally On Mild Producer Inflation Data As Traders Boost Bets On Bigger Fed Rate Cut: 5 ETFs To Watch Tuesday
Wall Street Set To Rally On Mild Producer Inflation Data As Traders Boost Bets On Bigger Fed Rate Cut: 5 ETFs To Watch Tuesday
A lower-than-expected producer inflation report sparked bullish sentiment in Tuesday's premarket trading, as traders increased their bets on a larger Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month.
在周二的盘前交易中，低于预期的生产者物价指数报告引发看好情绪，交易员增加了对下个月美联储更大利率降息的押注。
In July, the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand edged up by 0.1% month-over-month, slowing from June's 0.2% increase and missing economists' expectations of a 0.2% rise, according to TradingEconomics.
据TradingEconomics报道，7月份最终需求领域的生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1％，低于6月的0.2％增长和经济学家0.2％的预期。
On an annual basis, the PPI climbed by 2.2% compared to July 2023, down sharply from 2.7% in the previous month and below the anticipated 2.3%.
从年度基础上看，PPI上涨了2.2％，环比2023年7月下降了 sharply，低于预期的2.3％。
The core PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, remained flat month-over-month, falling short of the expected 0.2% increase and decelerating from June's revised 0.3% growth. Annually, the core PPI increased by 2.4%, down from the previous 3% and below the forecasted 2.7%.
核心PPI（不包括食品，能源和贸易服务）环比持平，较6月的修正增长0.3％下降，未达到预期的0.2％增长。年度基础上看，核心PPI上涨了2.4％，低于3％的上个月和预期的2.7％。
Before the release of the PPI report, investors had assigned a 52% probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, slightly outweighing the 48% chance of a smaller reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
在PPI报告发布之前，根据CME Group的FedWatch工具，投资者将50个基点的利率削减概率分配给9月份的可能性为52％，这略高于较小削减的48％概率。
Market Reactions To July PPI Report: Dollar Dips, Stocks Rally
7月PPI报告的市场反应: 美元下跌，股市上涨。
Following the PPI release, traders slightly increased their bets on a larger rate cut, with market-implied probabilities rising to 55%.
发布PPI后，交易员略微增加了对更大利率削减的押注，随着市场隐含概率上升至55%。
During Tuesday's premarket trading, the following moves were observed across major asset classes:
在周二的盘前交易中，主要资产类别的情况如下:
- Futures on the S&P 500, as tracked by SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), were up 0.6%.
- Nasdaq 100 futures, as closely followed by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), rallied 0.9%.
- Russell 2000 futures, tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), were 0.8% higher.
- U.S. Treasury bonds, as monitored through the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), were up about 0.5%.
- Gold prices, as replicated by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), were 0.1% lower.
- 标普500期货，由SPDR标普500 ETF信托基金（纽交所：SPY）跟踪，上涨了0.6％。
- 纳斯达克100期货，由纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust（纳斯达克：QQQ）密切关注，上涨了0.9％。
- 罗素2000期货，由iShares罗素2000指数ETF（纽交所：IWM）跟踪，上涨了0.8％。
- 美国国债，通过iShares 20+年期国库债券ETF（纳斯达克：TLT）监测，上涨约0.5％。
- 黄金价格，由SPDR金ETF（纽交所：GLD）复制，下降了0.1％。
All Eyes On July CPI
所有板块将关注7月CPI
Attention now shifts to July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
目前，注意力转向于定于周三上午8:30公布的7月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告。
Economists expect the CPI to rise by 2.9% year-over-year in July, down slightly from June's 3% increase. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to rise by 3.2%, also a minor decrease from the previous 3.3%.
经济学家预计，7月CPI同比上涨2.9％，略低于6月的3％增幅。核心CPI（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）预计上涨3.2％，也比以前的3.3％略微下降。
If the consumer inflation data comes in below expectations, it could further strengthen the case for a more substantial Fed rate cut. Conversely, if inflation shows signs of persistence, traders may shift back toward betting on a smaller cut or even the possibility of no cut in September.
如果消费者物价数据低于预期，可能会进一步增强更大利率削减的理由。相反，如果通胀显示出持久的迹象，交易员可能会再次转向对较小削减甚至9月份没有削减的可能性的押注。
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
图像由Midjourney通过人工智能创建。