A Look At The Fair Value Of Jiangxi Firstar Panel Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300256)
A Look At The Fair Value Of Jiangxi Firstar Panel Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300256)
Key Insights
主要见解
- Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd's estimated fair value is CN¥2.97 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd's CN¥2.83 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- The average premium for Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd's competitorsis currently 361%
- 江西星星科技有限公司基于两阶段自由现金流股权估值为人民币2.97元。
- 江西星星科技有限公司人民币2.83元的股价表明其交易水平与公允价值估计相似。
- 江西星星科技有限公司的竞争对手目前平均溢价达到361%。
How far off is Jiangxi Firstar Panel Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300256) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
江西星星科技股份有限公司(深圳证券交易所:300256)与其内在价值有多大偏差?借助最新的财务数据,我们将通过估计公司未来的现金流,并将其折现到现值,来判断股票是否定价合理。折现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将要应用的工具。您会发现,实际上并不太难跟随,正如我们的例子所展示的那样!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
请记住,有很多种方法可以估算公司的价值,而DCF只是其中的一种方法。对于那些热衷于股票分析的学习者,Simply Wall St分析模型可能会引起您的兴趣。
Is Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd Fairly Valued?
江西星星科技有限公司是否定价合理?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们将采用两阶段折现现金流模型,就像名称所示,它会考虑到两个时期的增长。 第一个时期通常是一个增长较快的时期,随着进入第二个“平稳增长”时期的末期价值逐渐稳定。 首先,我们需要估算未来10年的现金流。鉴于我们没有分析师对自由现金流的预估,我们需要从公司上次公布的财务数据中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司会减缓萎缩率,而自由现金流增长的公司将在此期间看到增长率减缓。我们这样做是为了反映增长在早期年份的放缓更甚于在后来的年份。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
DCF的核心概念是未来的每一美元都比现在的每一美元更不值钱,因此我们将这些未来的现金流贴现到当今的价值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10年自由现金流 (FCF) 预估值
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥113.0m | CN¥168.8m | CN¥228.7m | CN¥287.4m | CN¥341.4m | CN¥389.3m | CN¥430.9m | CN¥466.8m | CN¥498.0m | CN¥525.5m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 69.36% | Est @ 49.40% | Est @ 35.44% | Est @ 25.66% | Est @ 18.82% | Est @ 14.03% | Est @ 10.67% | Est @ 8.33% | Est @ 6.68% | Est @ 5.53% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2% | CN¥104 | CN¥144 | CN¥181 | CN¥210 | CN¥231 | CN¥243 | CN¥249 | CN¥249 | CN¥246 | CN¥240 |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
杠杆自由现金流量(人民币,百万) | 人民币113.0m | 人民币168.8m | 人民币228.7m | 2.874亿元人民币 | 人民币341.4m | 人民币389.3m | 人民币430.9m | 人民币466.8m | 人民币498.0m | CN¥525.5百万元 |
增长率估计来源 | 预计增长率为69.36%时的人民币金额。 | 预计增长率为49.40%时的人民币金额。 | 预计增长率为35.44%时的人民币金额。 | 预计增长率为25.66%时的人民币金额。 | 预计增长率为18.82%时的人民币金额。 | 预估将增长14.03%。 | 估值未达到10.67% | 以8.33%估计 | 预计增长率为6.68% | 预估5.53%后的 |
现值(CN¥,百万)以8.2%的折现率计算 | 人民币104元 | CN¥144 | 181元人民币 | CN¥210 | CN¥231 | 243元人民币 | CN¥249 | CN¥249 | 人民币246元 | CN¥240 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥2.1b
("Est" = Simply Wall St 估计的自由现金流增长率)
未来10年现金流的现值(PVCF) = 21亿人民币
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.2%.
第二阶段也被称为终值,是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。为了多种原因,使用的增长率非常保守,不能超过一个国家的 GDP 增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了 10 年政府债券收益率的 5 年平均值 (2.9%) 来预测未来的增长。就像在 10 年的“成长”期中一样,我们使用股权成本率 (8.2%) 来贴现未来的现金流至今天的价值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥526m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.9%) = CN¥10b
未来收益终值(TV)= 自由现金流2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = 人民币526m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.9%) = 人民币10b。
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥10b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= CN¥4.7b
未来收益终值的现值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= 人民币10b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= 人民币4.7b。
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥6.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥2.8, the company appears about fair value at a 4.9% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
总价值,或股权价值,是未来现金流现值之和,本例中为67亿元人民币。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股数。与目前的2.8元人民币每股股价相比,该公司似乎在现价的4.9%的折扣处于公正价值上。估值是不精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——稍微移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。请谨记这一点。
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Important Assumptions
重要假设
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.066. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
上述计算非常依赖于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。您不必同意这些输入,我建议重新计算并与之玩耍。DCF也不考虑行业可能存在的周期性或公司未来的资本需求,因此不能全面展示公司潜在的表现。鉴于我们将江西第一星电路板技术有限公司视为潜在股东,所以使用的折现率是权益成本而不是资本成本(或加权平均成本,WACC),后者考虑到债务。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.2%,这基于一个杠杆贝塔系数为1.066。Beta是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们从全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔获得我们的贝塔值,在0.8到2.0之间加上限制是一个合理的范围,适用于稳定的业务板块。
Looking Ahead:
展望未来:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd, we've put together three additional aspects you should further examine:
虽然公司的估值很重要,但在调研公司时,它不应该是您唯一看重的指标。DCF模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,应该将其视为“这支股票被低估或高估需要的假设是什么?”指南。例如,如果终端价值增长率稍作调整,就会极大地改变整体结果。对于江西第一星电路板技术有限公司,我们提出了三个您应该进一步检查的额外方面:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
- 风险:例如,我们已经发现了江西第一星电路板技术有限公司的1个警告信号,当您在这里投资前请注意。
- 其他优秀企业:低负债,高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是构建强大企业基础的基础。为什么不探索我们交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有坚实业务基础的其他公司?
- 其他环保型公司:担心环境问题,并认为消费者将越来越多地购买环保产品?浏览我们的交互式公司列表,了解一些您可能没有想到的股票!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS. Simply Wall St每天都会更新其所覆盖的每只中国股票的DCF计算,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需在此搜索即可。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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