Bitcoin Market Dominance In Final Stretch, Will Peak At 60% Until December, Analyst Says
Bitcoin Market Dominance In Final Stretch, Will Peak At 60% Until December, Analyst Says
Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen predicts Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) dominance to reach 60% before the end of 2024, signaling the end of a multi-year trend and potential shifts in the crypto market landscape.
Into The Cryptoverse创始人Benjamin Cowen预测，比特币（CRYPTO: BTC）支配力将在2024年年底之前达到60％，标志着多年趋势的结束和加密市场格局的潜在转变。
What Happened: Cowen argues that Bitcoin dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market share relative to all cryptocurrencies, is in its "final stretch" of a rally that began in 2021. He attributes this trend primarily to monetary policy rather than technological advancements or market sentiment.
发生了什么：Cowen认为，比特币的占比（衡量比特币市场份额与所有加密货币的相对比）正处于2021年开始的“最后阶段”的行情中。他主要归因于货币政策而不是技术进步或市场情绪。
Cowen explains that during periods of tighter monetary policy, investors tend to flee higher-risk assets for lower-risk options within each asset class. This has benefited Bitcoin at the expense of altcoins over the past few years.
Cowen解释说，在货币政策收紧期间，投资者倾向于从各类资产中选择低风险选项而逃离高风险资产。这在过去几年中使比特币受益，而以太币等代币则遭受亏损。
The analyst points to several key indicators supporting his thesis:
分析师指出支持他的观点的几个关键因子：
1. Historical Patterns: Bitcoin dominance has typically increased for three years before declining in the fourth year, coinciding with retail investor influx.
1. 历史模式：在第四年下降之前，比特币的主导地位通常会增加三年，这与零售投资者的涌入相吻合。
2. All-Bitcoin Pairs: Many altcoins continue to lose value against Bitcoin, suggesting further room for dominance growth.
2. 全比特币交易对: 许多代币继续对比特币失去价值，这表明支配地位仍有进一步增长的空间。
3. Federal Reserve Policy: Cowen believes the Fed will likely cut rates later this year, potentially marking the top for Bitcoin dominance.
3. 美联储政策: Cowen认为，美联储可能会在今年晚些时候降息，这有可能标志着比特币占比的顶点。
4. Technical Analysis: Bitcoin dominance is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which served as resistance in previous cycles.
4. 技术分析: 比特币占比正在接近61.8％Fibonacci回撤位，该位在以前的周期中充当支撑位。
Despite his bullish outlook on Bitcoin dominance in the short term, Cowen anticipates a reversal in 2024. He expects looser monetary policy to benefit altcoins and potentially trigger a new "alt season."
尽管Cowen短期看好比特币占比，但他预计在2024年将出现逆转。他希望较松的货币政策将有利于代币，有可能引发新的“代币季节”
Why It Matters: Cowen cautions that while the dominance trend has been consistent, timing the exact top is challenging. He suggests September or December as likely timeframes for Bitcoin dominance to peak around 60%.
为什么重要：Cowen警告说，尽管支配趋势一直保持一致，但精确定时顶点是具有挑战性的。他认为九月或十二月是比特币占比达到60％左右的可能时间范围。
The analyst emphasizes the importance of understanding these cycles for preserving wealth in the crypto market. He notes that many investors who entered during altcoin rallies may have become "Bitcoin maxis" after experiencing the multi-year dominance trend.
该分析师强调了理解这些周期对于保护加密市场中的财富的重要性。他指出，许多在代币涨势中进入市场的投资者在经历了多年的主导趋势后已成为“比特币迷”。
As the crypto market potentially approaches a turning point, Cowen's analysis provides valuable insights for investors navigating the complex relationship between Bitcoin, altcoins, and broader economic factors.
随着加密市场潜在临界点的接近，Cowen的分析为投资者在比特币、代币和更广泛的经济因素之间导航提供了有价值的见解。