Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) Posted Healthy Earnings But There Are Some Other Factors To Be Aware Of
Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) Posted Healthy Earnings But There Are Some Other Factors To Be Aware Of
Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) stock was strong after they recently reported robust earnings. However, our analysis suggests that shareholders may be missing some factors that indicate the earnings result was not as good as it looked.
最近,Aspen Aerogels公司(NYSE: ASPN)的股票表现强劲,因其近期公布的业绩强劲。然而,我们的分析表明,股东可能忽视了某些指标,表明业绩结果并不像看起来那么好。
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Examining Cashflow Against Aspen Aerogels' Earnings
对Aspen Aerogels公司的现金流与盈利的分析。
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
衡量公司将其利润转化为自由现金流(FCF)的一项关键财务比率是应计比率。简单地说,这个比率将FCF从净利润中减去,然后除以该公司在该期间的平均运营资产。您可以将从现金流中得出的应计比率视为“非FCF利润比率”。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
这意味着负面预提比率是一件好事,因为它表明公司所获得的自由现金流比其利润所示的要多。这并不意味着我们应该担心正面的预提比率,但值得注意的是,如果预提比率很高的话就要考虑这个问题。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年的一篇论文:“预提较高的公司未来的盈利能力较低”。
Aspen Aerogels has an accrual ratio of 0.28 for the year to June 2024. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Even though it reported a profit of US$1.39m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through US$132m in the last year. We also note that Aspen Aerogels' free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of US$132m. However, that's not the end of the story. We can look at how unusual items in the profit and loss statement impacted its accrual ratio, as well as explore how dilution is impacting shareholders negatively.
Aspen Aerogels公司在截至2024年6月的一年内的应计比率为0.28。不幸的是,这意味着其自由现金流远远小于其规定的利润,这使我们对利润作为指导的效用产生怀疑。即使它报告了139万美元的利润,但查看自由现金流表明,它实际上在过去一年中流出了1,3200万美元。我们还注意到,Aspen Aerogels的自由现金流在去年实际上是负的,因此如果股东对其1.32亿美元的流出感到困扰,我们可以理解。然而,这还不是故事的结束。我们可以看看损益表中的非常规项目如何影响其应计比率,以及探讨稀释如何对股东产生负面影响。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让您想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于其估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。
In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. Aspen Aerogels expanded the number of shares on issue by 9.8% over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. Check out Aspen Aerogels' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.
为了了解每股收益潜力,必须考虑公司对股东的稀释程度。在过去一年中,Aspen Aerogels的股份发行数量增加了9.8%。因此,其净收入现在分摊于更多的股份之间。每股收益等指标可以帮助我们了解实际股东从公司利润中受益的程度,而净收入水平可以给我们更好地了解公司的绝对规模。单击此链接查看Aspen Aerogels的历史EPS增长情况。
A Look At The Impact Of Aspen Aerogels' Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)
探讨稀释如何影响Aspen Aerogels公司的每股收益(EPS)。三年前,Aspen Aerogels亏损了。即使仅关注过去十二个月,由于去年也出现了亏损,因此我们没有一个有意义的增长率。但是尽管如此,看到曾经不赚钱的企业变好总是好的(尽管我们接受的利润如果不需要稀释,将会更高)。因此,稀释对股东回报产生了显着的影响。
Aspen Aerogels was losing money three years ago. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns.
从长期来看,如果Aspen Aerogels的每股收益能够提高,则股价也应该上涨。但另一方面,了解利润(但不是EPS)正在改善,我们会感到远远不如激动人心。因此,可以说EPS比净收入更重要,长期来看,假设目标是评估公司的股价是否可能增长。
In the long term, if Aspen Aerogels' earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.
Aspen Aerogels的利润受到非常规项目的影响,在过去十二个月中,这些项目减少了460万美元的利润。如果这是一项非现金收费,那么就容易实现高现金转换,因此,应计比率告诉了一个不同的故事,这是令人惊讶的。尽管非常规项目的扣除一开始令人失望,但其中有一线生机。我们研究了成千上万的上市公司,并发现非常规项目在很多情况下是一次性的。这并不奇怪,因为这些行项目被认为是不寻常的。假设这些非常规开支不再出现,我们预计Aspen Aerogels明年可以产生更高的利润,其他条件不变。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀释之外,还应该注意的是,万集科技在过去12个月中因不寻常项目获得了价值人民币3.5万元的利润。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当这些不寻常项目对利润做出重大贡献时,我们会更加谨慎。我们对全球大部分上市公司的数据进行了分析,发现不寻常项目往往是一次性的。这正如我们所期望的那样,因为这些提升被描述为"不寻常"。相对于其利润而言,万集科技在2021年12月前的不寻常项目贡献大。因此,我们可以推断出,这些不寻常项目正在使其财务利润显著增强。
Aspen Aerogels' profit suffered from unusual items, which reduced profit by US$4.6m in the last twelve months. In the case where this was a non-cash charge it would have made it easier to have high cash conversion, so it's surprising that the accrual ratio tells a different story. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Aspen Aerogels to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.
我们对Aspen Aerogels的利润表现的看法。
Our Take On Aspen Aerogels' Profit Performance
综上所述,Aspen Aerogels的非常规项目表明其法定收益暂时受到压抑,其应计比率表明自由现金流相对于利润不足。除此之外,稀释意味着股东现在拥有较少的公司股份。考虑到上述所有观察结果后,我们认为Aspen Aerogels的利润可能给人留下了其可持续盈利水平的慷慨印象。鉴于此,如果您想对该公司进行更多的分析,了解所涉及的风险至关重要。为了帮助您进行此项工作,我们发现了2个警告信号(其中1个有点令人担忧!在购买Aspen Aerogels的任何股票之前,您应该了解这些信号。
Summing up, Aspen Aerogels' unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings were temporarily depressed, and its accrual ratio indicates a lack of free cash flow relative to profit. On top of that, the dilution means that shareholders now own less of the company. After taking into account all the aforementioned observations we think that Aspen Aerogels' profits probably give a generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. To help with this, we've discovered 2 warning signs (1 is a bit concerning!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Aspen Aerogels.
我们对Aspen Aerogels的检查重点关注了某些因素,这些因素可以使其收益看起来比实际情况更好。因此,在此基础上,我们对其持怀疑态度。但是,如果您能够将注意力集中在细节上,并且对大多数人来说,高净值回报是具有良好商业经济学迹象的指标,那么您可以发现此免费高回报股票集合或具有BR>重大内部持股的股票清单。虽然您可能需要进行一些研究,但您可能会发现这些清单很有用。
Our examination of Aspen Aerogels has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我们对Aspen Aerogels进行的审查侧重于某些因素,这些因素可以使其收益看起来比实际情况更好。因此,在此基础上,我们对其持怀疑态度。但是,如果您能够将注意力集中在细节上,并且对大多数人来说,高净值回报是具有良好商业经济学迹象的指标,那么您可以发现此免费高回报股票集合或具有BR>重大内部持股的股票清单。虽然您可能需要进行一些研究,但您可能会发现这些清单很有用。
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