Lenovo Group Limited Just Beat Revenue By 9.5%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Lenovo Group Limited Just Beat Revenue By 9.5%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Shareholders might have noticed that Lenovo Group Limited (HKG:992) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.4% to HK$9.68 in the past week. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$15b coming in 9.5% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.019, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
股东们可能已经注意到联想集团有限公司(HKG:992)上周公布了其第一季度业绩报告。然而其股价在过去一周下跌3.4%至9.68港元。虽然公司业绩表现与预期相比有所提高,营业收入为150亿美元,超出预期9.5%,每股收益为0.019美元,与分析师评估持平,但市场反应不积极。分析师们在业绩公布后已更新其盈利模型,想知道他们是否认为该公司前景发生了重大变化,或者是否像往常一样。因此,我们汇集了最新的业绩预测,看看预估的下一年度公司业绩会如何。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Lenovo Group's 23 analysts is for revenues of US$63.7b in 2025. This would reflect an okay 7.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to US$0.10. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$62.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.11 in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Lenovo Group after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.
考虑到最新业绩,联想集团的23名分析师预测2025年营收将达到637亿美元,较过去12个月的收入增长7.2%。 预计每股收益将上升17%至0.10美元。 然而,在最新业绩公布之前,分析师们先前预计2025年营收为620亿美元,每股收益为0.11美元。因此,联想集团的市场情绪在最新业绩后明显分化。虽然分析师们提高了营收预期,但他们也降低了每股收益预期。
There's been no major changes to the price target of HK$12.27, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Lenovo Group analyst has a price target of HK$13.98 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$10.68. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
HK$12.27的目标股价没有发生重大变化,这意味着预测营收增长和盈利下滑的影响不会对企业的估值产生实质性的影响。然而,只关注单一目标股价并不明智,因为共识目标实际上是分析师目标股价的平均值。因此,一些投资者喜欢看下估计范围,以查看公司估值的不同看法。最乐观的联想集团分析师的股价目标为HK$13.98,而最悲观的分析师的股价目标为HK$10.68。您可以看到,预计范围很广,最低估值不到最看好估值的一半,这表明分析师对这家公司的未来表现持有明显的异议。因此,基于共识股价并不是一个好主意,它只是这个广泛估计范围的平均值。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Lenovo Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 9.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.1% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 12% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Lenovo Group is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
现在看这个细节问题。了解这些预测的一种方法是将它们与过去的业绩和行业增长预测相比较。从最新的预测中,可以清楚地看出,联想集团的增长速度有望明显加速,预计至2025年的年化营收增长率为9.7%,明显快于过去五年的历史增长率3.1%。以比较速度为12%的其他公司为对比,可以发现联想集团的增长将较为缓慢,落后于整个行业。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Lenovo Group. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最大的问题在于分析师降低了他们的每股收益预测,这表明联想集团可能面临业务阻力。虽然预计增长速度低于整个行业,但他们却提高了明年的营收预期。共识股价目标没有真正变化,这表明公司的内在价值在最新的预测中没有发生重大变化。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Lenovo Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Lenovo Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
因此,在考虑联想集团时,我们不应过于追求眼前利润,长期的盈利能力才更加重要。我们对联想集团的预测一直持续到2027年,并可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Lenovo Group you should know about.
那么,风险呢?每个公司都有一定的风险,我们发现了联想集团的1个警告信号,您应该知道。
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