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Investing in Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) Three Years Ago Would Have Delivered You a 59% Gain

Investing in Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) Three Years Ago Would Have Delivered You a 59% Gain

如果三年前投资金德尔摩根(纽交所:KMI),您将获得了59%的收益。
Simply Wall St ·  08/18 09:11

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI) shareholders have seen the share price rise 32% over three years, well in excess of the market return (15%, not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 29% in the last year, including dividends.

通过购买指数基金,可以轻松地接近市场回报。但是我们中的许多人敢梦想获得更大的回报,自己建立组合。例如,金德尔摩根公司(纽交所:KMI)的股东们在三年内看到股价上涨了32%,远远超过了市场回报(15%,不包括分红)。然而,最近的回报并没有那么令人印象深刻,包括分红在内,该股票在过去一年中只实现了29%的回报。

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

那么,让我们调查一下并查看公司的长期表现是否符合基本业务的进展。

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

虽然有效市场假说仍然被一些人教授,但被证明市场是过度反应的动态系统,投资者并不总是理性的。检查市场情绪如何随时间变化的一种方法是看一个公司的股价与其每股收益(EPS)之间的交互作用。

During three years of share price growth, Kinder Morgan achieved compound earnings per share growth of 13% per year. The average annual share price increase of 10% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.

在三年的股价增长中,金德尔摩根的每股收益复合增长率为13%。平均每年的股价增长率为10%,实际上比每股收益增长率低。因此,市场似乎已经在一定程度上调整了对增长的预期。

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

下图显示了EPS随时间变化的情况(点击图像以显示确切值)。

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NYSE:KMI Earnings Per Share Growth August 18th 2024
纽交所:KMI每股收益增长率为2024年8月18日。

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

值得注意的是,我们在上个季度看到了显着的内部买入,我们认为这是一个积极的信号。另一方面,我们认为营业收入和收益趋势是业务更有意义的衡量标准。在买卖股票之前,我们总是建议仔细研究历史增长趋势,此处可供参考...

What About Dividends?

那么分红怎么样呢?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Kinder Morgan's TSR for the last 3 years was 59%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

在考虑投资回报时,重要的是要考虑总股东回报(TSR)和股价回报之间的差异。股价回报只反映了股价的变化,而TSR包括股息的价值(假设已经再投资)和任何折扣的融资或分拆的好处。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司,TSR往往比股价回报高得多。事实上,金德尔摩根在过去3年的TSR为59%,超过了前面提到的股价回报。公司支付的股息已经提升了总股东回报。

A Different Perspective

不同的观点

Kinder Morgan's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 29%. Most would be happy with a gain, and it helps that the year's return is actually better than the average return over five years, which was 8%. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Kinder Morgan better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Kinder Morgan (including 2 which are potentially serious) .

金德尔摩根公司去年的TSR与市场平均水平持平,为29%。大多数人都会对获利感到满意,而且今年的收益也好于五年的平均收益,为8%。即使股价放缓,管理前瞻性可能会为未来带来增长。跟踪股价长期表现总是很有趣的。但要更好地了解金德尔摩根,我们需要考虑许多其他因素。为此,您应该了解我们在金德尔摩根发现的3个警告信号(其中2个可能非常严重)。

Kinder Morgan is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

金德尔摩根并不是唯一一家内部人士在购买的股票。对于那些喜欢发现较少知名公司的人,这个免费的最近有内部人员购买的增长公司列表可能会很有用。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

请注意,本文所引述的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

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