Brighter Outlook: Goldman Sachs Optimistic On U.S. Economy, Cuts Recession Risk Down To 20%
Brighter Outlook: Goldman Sachs Optimistic On U.S. Economy, Cuts Recession Risk Down To 20%
According to the report by Bloomberg, the U.S. economy showcased its strength with a flood of encouraging data, propelling stocks to their best week this year.In the wake of promising retail sales and jobless claims data, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists have revised the risk of a U.S. recession in the next year from 25% to 20%.
在有希望的零售销售和失业救济数据的推动下，高盛集团经济学家将未来一年美国经济衰退风险从25％修正为20％。
What Happened: The team of economists at Goldman Sachs reassessed the recession risk due to positive economic data released last week.
发生了什么：高盛的经济学家团队由于上周发布了积极的经济数据而重新评估了经济衰退风险。
The upcoming jobs report for August, slated for release on September 6, could potentially lead to a further reduction in the recession probability to 15%, a level it maintained for nearly a year before an upward revision on August 2.
即将发布于9月6日的8月就业报告可能潜在地导致经济衰退概率降至15％，这是自去年8月2日上调之前就保持了近一年的水平。
According to the report by Bloomberg, the U.S. economy showcased its strength with a flood of encouraging data, propelling stocks to their best week this year.
根据彭博社的报告，美国经济通过一系列鼓舞人心的数据表现出了其实力，推动股市实现了今年以来的最佳一周。
Retail sales in July witnessed the most significant surge since early 2023, and government statistics revealed the lowest number of unemployment benefit applications since early July.
7月份的零售销售见证了自2023年初以来最大的激增，政府统计显示失业救济申请人数自今年7月初以来最少。
Goldman Sachs economists also displayed increased confidence in the Federal Reserve's potential decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their September policy meeting.
高盛经济学家还对联邦储备委员会9月份政策会议上削减利率25个基点的潜在决定增加了信心。
Also Read: S&P 500 Records Best Week Of The Year Amid Favorable Economic Reports: What Really Drove The Rally?
此外，标普500指数在有利经济报告的推动下创下了年度最佳一周：真正推动了这一涨势是什么？
However, they cautioned that a disappointing jobs report on September 6 could still trigger a 50 basis point move.
然而，他们警告称，9月6日发布的令人失望的就业报告仍可能引发50个基点的波动。
Why It Matters: The revised recession risk is a positive sign for the U.S. economy, reflecting the resilience it has shown amidst global economic uncertainties. The surge in retail sales and the decrease in jobless claims indicate a robust consumer sector, a critical component of the US economy.
修正后的经济衰退风险是美国经济的一个积极迹象，反映出在全球经济不确定性中所展现的韧性。零售销售的激增以及失业救济的减少表明消费者部门强劲，这是美国经济的一个重要组成部分。
The potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as predicted by Goldman Sachs, could provide further stimulus to the economy, encouraging borrowing and investment.
高盛预测的美联储可能降息可能进一步刺激经济，鼓励借贷和投资。
However, the economists' caution about the upcoming jobs report underscores the delicate balance of factors influencing the economic outlook.
然而，经济学家们对即将到来的就业报告的警告凸显了影响经济前景的因素之间微妙的平衡。
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This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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