OCBC Forecasts Higher GDP Growth For Malaysia In 2024, Keeps 2025 At 4.5%
OCBC Forecasts Higher GDP Growth For Malaysia In 2024, Keeps 2025 At 4.5%
The house noted that measures undertaken by the authorities since late February are bearing fruit and the currency (MYR) has outperformed regional peers. BNM also noted that the daily average FX trading volume was higher (USD18bn) compared to prior to the measures (2 January – 23 February 2024: USD15bn).Notably, the Central Bank reported on the GDP growth which picked up to 5.9% YoY in 2Q24 versus 4.2% in 1Q24, taking 1H24 growth to 5.1%, supported by solid private consumption and export growth. OCBC in itts update,, has revises higher the 2024 GDP growth forecast to 5 % YoY from 4.2%. abd maintains its growth forecast of 4.5% for 2025.
值得注意的是，央行报告称2014年第二季度GDP增长率为5.9%，而第一季度为4.2%。成为支撑力量的是实质的私人消费和出口增长，导致上半年的增长率为5.1%。OCBC在其报告中将2024年的GDP增长预测从4.2%上调至5%。其2025年的增长预测为4.5%。
OCBC said the details were encouraging with private sector spending and export growth were the biggest drivers of 2Q24 GDP growth. Specifically, the private sector contribution to headline GDP growth picked up to 5.7 percentage points (pp) in 2Q24 from 4.4pp in 1Q24, driven by consumption and investment spending. This more than offset the lower public sector contribution (0.8pp versus 1.3pp in 1Q24) driven mainly by consumption spending and consistent with fiscal consolidation priorities.
OCBC表示，细节内容令人鼓舞，私人部门支出和出口增长是2014年第二季度GDP增长的最大推动因素。具体而言，私人部门对总GDP增长的贡献从第一季度的4.4%提高到了第二季度的5.7%，以消费和投资支出为主导。这弥补了公共部门贡献的下降（从第一季度的1.3%下降到了0.8%），主要是消费支出，并与财政整合的优先事项相符。
The forecast is for GDP growth to remain strong in 2H24, averaging 4.9% YoY versus 5.1% in 1H24, supported by the bottoming out of the global electronics downcycle, higher investment spending underscoring progress on the government's medium-term economic development plans and resilient household spending. This will be at the upper bound of the official 4-5% GDP growth target range for 2024. For 2025, we continue to expect the economy to grow by 4.5% YoY.
预计2014年下半年GDP增长将保持强劲，平均为4.9%，相比于上半年的5.1%，得益于全球电子衰退的止跌反弹、投资支出的增加以及政府的中期经济发展计划和强劲的家庭支出。这将处于2024年官方4-5% GDP增长目标范围的上限。对于2025年，我们仍然预计经济增长将达到4.5%。
The house noted that measures undertaken by the authorities since late February are bearing fruit and the currency (MYR) has outperformed regional peers. BNM also noted that the daily average FX trading volume was higher (USD18bn) compared to prior to the measures (2 January – 23 February 2024: USD15bn).
该机构指出，自2月下旬以来当局采取的措施正在见效，货币(MYR)的表现已超过区域同行。BNm还指出，每日外汇交易的成交量较采取措施前（2024年1月2日至2月23日：150亿美元）有所增加（达180亿美元）。