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Is Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) A Risky Investment?

Is Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) A Risky Investment?

卡骆驰(纳斯达克股票代码:CROX)是否是一项高风险的投资?
Simply Wall St ·  08/19 07:14

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

沃伦·巴菲特曾说过一句名言:“波动性远非风险的代名词。”因此,很明显,当你考虑任何给定股票的风险时,你需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务会使公司陷入困境。我们注意到,Crocs, Inc.(纳斯达克股票代码:CROX)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是,股东是否应该担心其债务的使用?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

债务会带来什么风险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业发展的工具,但如果企业无法还清贷款人,那么债务就任由他们摆布。在最坏的情况下,如果一家公司无法向债权人付款,它可能会破产。但是,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东才能控制债务。当然,债务的好处在于它通常代表廉价资本,尤其是当它取代了对一家能够以高回报率进行再投资的公司的摊薄时。当我们考虑公司使用债务时,我们首先要同时考虑现金和债务。

What Is Crocs's Net Debt?

Crocs 的净负债是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Crocs had debt of US$1.53b at the end of June 2024, a reduction from US$2.03b over a year. However, it does have US$167.7m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$1.36b.

您可以点击下图查看更多详情,该图片显示,截至2024年6月底,Crocs的债务为15.3亿美元,较上一年的20.3亿美元有所减少。但是,它确实有1.677亿美元的现金抵消了这一点,净负债约为13.6亿美元。

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NasdaqGS:CROX Debt to Equity History August 19th 2024
NASDAQGS: Crox 债券与股本的比率历史记录 2024 年 8 月 19 日

How Healthy Is Crocs' Balance Sheet?

Crocs的资产负债表有多健康?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Crocs had liabilities of US$686.4m due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.38b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$167.7m as well as receivables valued at US$443.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$2.46b.

最新的资产负债表数据显示,Crocs的负债为6.864亿美元,此后到期的负债为23.8亿美元。除这些债务外,它有1.677亿美元的现金以及价值4.430亿美元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,其负债比其现金和(短期)应收账款总额高出24.6亿美元。

Crocs has a market capitalization of US$8.08b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

Crocs的市值为80.8亿美元,因此,如果需要,它很可能会筹集资金以改善其资产负债表。但很明显,我们一定要仔细研究它能否在不稀释的情况下管理债务。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们相对于收益的债务水平。第一个是净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),第二个是其利息和税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息保障)的多少倍。这种方法的优势在于,我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量(包括净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润),也考虑了与该债务相关的实际利息支出(及其利息覆盖率)。

With net debt sitting at just 1.2 times EBITDA, Crocs is arguably pretty conservatively geared. And it boasts interest cover of 8.1 times, which is more than adequate. Fortunately, Crocs grew its EBIT by 8.1% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Crocs can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

由于净负债仅为息税折旧摊销前利润的1.2倍,Crocs的财务状况可以说相当保守。而且它的利息覆盖率为8.1倍,这已经足够了。幸运的是,去年Crocs的息税前利润增长了8.1%,这使得债务负担看起来更易于控制。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但最终,该业务的未来盈利能力将决定Crocs能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Crocs recorded free cash flow worth 68% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,我们显然需要研究该息税前利润是否会带来相应的自由现金流。在最近三年中,鉴于自由现金流不包括利息和税收,Crocs记录的自由现金流占其息税前利润的68%,这几乎是正常的。这种冷硬现金意味着它可以在需要时减少债务。

Our View

我们的观点

Happily, Crocs's impressive conversion of EBIT to free cash flow implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And its interest cover is good too. All these things considered, it appears that Crocs can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Crocs , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

令人高兴的是,Crocs令人印象深刻地将息税前利润转换为自由现金流,这意味着它在债务方面占了上风。而且它的利息保障也很好。考虑到所有这些因素,Crocs似乎可以轻松应对其当前的债务水平。当然,尽管这种杠杆可以提高股本回报率,但它确实带来了更多的风险,因此值得关注。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。我们已经确定了Crocs的两个警告信号,了解它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有兴趣投资能够在没有债务负担的情况下增加利润的企业,请查看这份资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业的免费清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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