Donald Trump Cuts Kamala Harris' Election Odds Lead To 4 Points, But He Leads In These 2 Crucial Swing States
Donald Trump Cuts Kamala Harris' Election Odds Lead To 4 Points, But He Leads In These 2 Crucial Swing States
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 19, 2024Vice President Kamala Harris continues her lead over former President Donald Trump in the latest Polymarket predictions for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.
在最新的Polymarket对2024年美国总统选举的预测中，副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯继续领先于前总统特朗普概念。
What Happened: As of August 19, Harris now holds a 51% chance of clinching the presidency, while Trump trails at 47%, marking a four-point gap between the two frontrunners. This lead as the Democratic National Convention coronates the Harris-Walz ticket from Aug.19 to Aug.22 in Chicago.
截至8月19日，哈里斯现在拥有51%的总统获胜机会，而特朗普则落后于47%，两个领先者之间出现了四分之一的差距。这一领先优势是在民主党全国大会上加冕哈里斯 - 沃尔兹选票时实现的，从8月19日到8月22日在芝加哥举行。
Kamala is back in the lead as the Democratic National Convention kicks off. pic.twitter.com/VLyUyl10G8
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 19, 2024
卡玛拉在民主党全国大会开始时重新领先了。pic.twitter.com/VLyUyl10G8
—— Polymarket (@Polymarket) 2024年8月19日
4,000 delegates will formally recognize Harris as the Democratic nominee after a virtual roll call confirmed the Vice President's nomination earlier this month.
虚拟点名于本月早些时候确认了副总统的提名后，将有4000名代表正式认可哈里斯为民主党提名人。
$642.9 million have been placed in bets on the Presidential Election Winner market, up from around $600 million on Aug.15.
总统大选获胜市场上已经投入了642.9百万美元的赌注，而8月15日左右的赌注则为约6000万美元。
Polymarket also tweeted that the former President is leading the odds in Georgia and Nevada with 57% and 53%, respectively.
Polymarket还在推特上发推文，称前总统在佐治亚州和内华达州的胜率分别为57%和53%。
According to Polymarket data on the Popular Vote Winner market, Kamala Harris has a 73% chance, compared to Trump's 26%. $107.7 million have been bet so far.
据Polymarket Popular Vote Winner市场的数据显示，卡玛拉·哈里斯有73%的机会，而特朗普的机会为26%。到目前为止，已经有1077百万美元的赌注。
Arkham Intelligence data shows Donald Trump's crypto portfolio currently valued at $3.4 million, with $1.3 million in Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH). Swinging election odds could impact the portfolio value of Trump and the broader crypto market.
Arkham Intelligence的数据显示，唐纳德·特朗普的加密货币资产目前价值340万美元，以太坊（CRYPTO: ETH）的价值为130万美元。涨跌不定的选举赔率可能会影响特朗普和整个加密市场的投资组合价值。
Richard Chen, a former general partner at 1confirmation tweeted that since the start of 2024, 88% of Polymarket volume has been election-related. The election winner and the market for democratic nominee have garnered the most trading volume thus far.
1confirmation前合伙人理查德·陈（Richard Chen）发推文称，自2024年开始以来，88%的Polymarket成交量与选举有关。到目前为止，选举获胜者和民主党提名人市场获得了最大的交易量。