The utilities sector is set to experience robust growth a year after the launch of the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR), with strong future prospects. The analysts highlight Tenaga Nasional (TNB), YTL Power, and Samaiden Group as top picks. This positive outlook is driven by a range of factors, including the burgeoning number of data centre (DC) developments, ongoing power grid upgrades, and the significant role of independent power producers (IPPs). Additionally, the expansion of domestic renewable energy (RE) capacity is expected to enhance contractors' job flow.
Analysts remain optimistic about the sector's trajectory, with an OVERWEIGHT rating reaffirmed. The recent advancements following the NETR's introduction, such as the Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme (CRESS) and the establishment of Energy Exchange Malaysia (ENEGEM), are crucial. These developments are set to push third-party access (TPA) mechanisms and facilitate energy exports, particularly to Singapore. Moreover, the continued rollout of solar power programmes and feasibility studies on alternative energy sources like biomass, ammonia, and hydrogen underscore the sector's growth potential.
West Malaysia's electricity consumption is forecasted to surpass the 10-year average growth of 2.4% over the next decade, primarily due to the expansion of data centres. The energy consumption of DCs alone is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6-2.6% from 2023 to 2035, provided that 3-5GW of DCs are fully operational by 2035. In response to this strong demand, the Government has set a reserve margin of 28-36% for 2024-2030. To support this growth, short-term power purchase agreement (PPA) bids are in progress, with the potential for extensions for gas-fired plants. Experienced IPPs, such as TNB and Malakoff Corp, are well-positioned to benefit from additional gas capacity expansions.
The upcoming Regulatory Period (RP) 4, expected by the end of the year, may bring changes to tariffs to accommodate new initiatives such as energy exports and TPA mechanism wheeling charges. The house anticipates a 25-40% increase in average regulated capital expenditure (capex) compared to RP2 levels, reaching RM8.6-9.6 billion annually. This adjustment is expected to reflect an annual demand growth of 3-4% and maintain a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.3%. The sensitivity analysis suggests that regulatory net returns could rise by 1.34% for every RM1 billion increase in average capex annually.
The solar power sector continues to show momentum, supported by favourable government policies and decreasing panel prices. The rapid progress in large-scale solar (LSS) projects and the upcoming Corporate Green Power Programme (CGPP) EPCC awards indicate significant potential for growth. With the shortlisting of bidders for LSS 5 and the rollout of CRESS and ENEGEM, solar EPCC players are expected to see sustained earnings growth.
在国家能源转型路线图(NETR)推出一年后,公用事业部门将迎来强劲增长,未来前景广阔。分析师将Tenaga Nasional(TNB)、YTL Power和Samaiden集团列为首选。这种乐观的前景是由一系列因素推动的,包括不断增长的数据中心(DC)开发、持续的电网升级以及独立电力生产商(IPP)的重要作用。此外,国内可再生能源(RE)产能的扩大预计将增加承包商的工作流程。
分析师对该行业的走势仍持乐观态度,并重申增持评级。NETR推出后最近取得的进展,例如企业可再生能源供应计划(CRESS)和马来西亚能源交易所(ENEGEM)的成立,至关重要。这些事态发展必将推动第三方准入(TPA)机制并促进能源出口,尤其是对新加坡的出口。此外,太阳能发电计划的持续推出以及对生物质、氨和氢气等替代能源的可行性研究凸显了该行业的增长潜力。
预计未来十年西马的电力消耗量将超过10年平均增长2.4%,这主要是由于数据中心的扩张。如果到2035年有3-5吉瓦的发展中国家全面投入运营,预计从2023年到2035年,仅发展中国家的能源消耗就将以1.6-2.6%的复合年增长率(CAGR)增长。为了应对这种强劲的需求,政府已将2024-2030年的储备利润率定为28-36%。为了支持这种增长,短期电力购买协议(PPA)竞标正在进行中,有可能延长燃气发电厂的期限。经验丰富的独立发电商,例如TnB和Malakoff Corp,完全有能力从额外的天然气产能扩张中受益。
即将到来的监管期(RP)4预计将于今年年底出台,这可能会带来费率的变化,以适应能源出口和TPA机制的回收费用等新举措。众议院预计,与RP2水平相比,平均监管资本支出(capex)将增加25-40%,每年达到86-96令吉。预计这一调整将反映出3-4%的年需求增长,并将加权平均资本成本(WACC)维持在7.3%。敏感度分析表明,每年平均资本支出每增加10令吉,监管机构的净回报率可能增加1.34%。
在有利的政府政策和电池板价格下降的支持下,太阳能行业继续表现出势头。大型太阳能(LSS)项目的快速进展以及即将颁发的企业绿色能源计划(CGPP)EPCC奖项表明了巨大的增长潜力。随着LSS 5竞标者的入围名单以及CRESS和EneGem的推出,预计太阳能EPCC参与者的收益将持续增长。