We Think Ribbon Communications (NASDAQ:RBBN) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Ribbon Communications (NASDAQ:RBBN) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Ribbon Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:RBBN) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
沃伦•巴菲特曾经说过:“波动性远非风险的同义词。”当我们考虑一家公司有多大的风险时,我们总是喜欢看看它的债务使用情况,因为债务过载可能会导致灾难。我们注意到Ribbon Communications Inc.(NASDAQ:RBBN)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但股东们是否应该担心它的债务使用呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
当企业无法通过自由现金流或以有吸引力的价格筹集资本时,债务和其他负债将会让商业风险升高。资本主义中的重要组成部分是“创造性破坏”,其中银行家会无情地清算破产的企业。然而,更常见(但仍然令人痛苦)的情况是它必须以低价筹集新的股权资本,从而永久性地稀释股东的权益。当然,有很多公司利用债务资金来获得增长,而不会受到任何负面后果。考虑公司的债务水平时,第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。
How Much Debt Does Ribbon Communications Carry?
Ribbon Communications的负债量有多大?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Ribbon Communications had debt of US$337.5m, up from US$292.0m in one year. On the flip side, it has US$64.6m in cash leading to net debt of about US$272.9m.
下面的图像(单击可放大查看)显示,截至2024年6月,Ribbon Communications的债务为3.375亿美元,比一年前的2.92亿美元增加了820万美元。与此相反,它拥有6,460万美元的现金,导致净债务约为2.729亿美元。
How Healthy Is Ribbon Communications' Balance Sheet?
Ribbon Communications的资产负债表有多健康?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Ribbon Communications had liabilities of US$272.6m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$427.9m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$64.6m in cash and US$211.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$424.9m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
仔细查看最新的资产负债表数据后,我们可以看到Ribbon Communications在12个月内有272.6百万美元的到期负债,427.9亿美元的长期负债。相应地,它拥有6,460万美元的现金和2,110万美元的应收账款,这些应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的组合多4,249万美元。
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$558.5m, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Ribbon Communications' use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
与其市值相比,这个亏损规模相当大,为5,585万美元,因此它确实建议股东们关注Ribbon Communications的债务使用情况。这表明,如果公司需要紧急整顿资产负债表,股东们将非常受到稀释。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
为了衡量公司相对于其收益的债务情况,我们计算其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)和其利息支出除以利息前收益(EBIT)的比例(其利息覆盖率)。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量(净负债与 EBITDA),又考虑到了与该债务相关的实际利息支出(其利息覆盖率)。
While Ribbon Communications's debt to EBITDA ratio (3.3) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 0.46, suggesting high leverage. It seems that the business incurs large depreciation and amortisation charges, so maybe its debt load is heavier than it would first appear, since EBITDA is arguably a generous measure of earnings. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. One redeeming factor for Ribbon Communications is that it turned last year's EBIT loss into a gain of US$14m, over the last twelve months. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ribbon Communications's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
尽管Ribbon Communications的负债/EBITDA比率(3.3)表明其使用了一些债务,但其利息盈利比非常低,只有0.46,表明其杠杆率很高。看来这家公司产生了大量的折旧和摊销费用,因此它的债务负担可能比它的表面上看起来的要重,因为EBITDA可能是盈利的一种宽松的衡量方法。显然,借贷成本对股东的回报有负面影响。Ribbon Communications的一个弥赎因素是,它将去年的EBIt亏损转化为了过去12个月的1400万美元的收益。分析债务水平时,资产负债表是一个明显的起点。但最终,比起任何东西,都是未来收益决定了Ribbon Communications的维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您想看看专业人士的想法,您可以查看这份有关分析师盈利预测的免费报告。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. In the last year, Ribbon Communications created free cash flow amounting to 4.0% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
但我们最终的考虑也很重要,因为一家公司无法用虚拟利润来还债;它需要真金白银。因此,检查它的利息和税前收入(EBIT)有多少转化为实际的自由现金流非常重要。在过去的一年里,Ribbon Communications创造了相当于其EBIt的4.0%的自由现金流,表现平平。对我们来说,如此低的现金转换率会对它还债的能力产生一些怀疑。
Our View
我们的观点
We'd go so far as to say Ribbon Communications's interest cover was disappointing. Having said that, its ability to grow its EBIT isn't such a worry. Overall, it seems to us that Ribbon Communications's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Ribbon Communications that you should be aware of.
我们不得不说,Ribbon Communications的利息盈利比非常令人失望。尽管如此,它增长EBIt的能力并不足为虑。总体而言,我们认为Ribbon Communications的资产负债表对业务构成了相当大的风险。因此,我们对这个股票感到非常警惕,就像一个饥饿的小猫对主人的鱼塘非常警惕:一朝被蛇咬,十年怕井绳。分析债务水平时,资产负债表是一个明显的起点。但是最终,每家公司都可能面临超出资产负债表以外的风险。例如,我们已经确定了Ribbon Communications存在1个风险警告标志,您应该了解这一点。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
归根结底,专注于没有净债务的公司往往更好。您可以访问我们的特别列表,其中包括所有表现出盈利增长轨迹的公司。这是免费的。
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