As the price of gold recently surpassed $2,500 per troy ounce, the value of a standard 400-troy-ounce gold bar has skyrocketed to the $1-million milestone for the first time in history.
This surge isn't due to a flood of consumers rushing to buy jewelry or a sudden spike in investor demand for this traditional safe haven. Instead, the rally is largely fueled by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Why Have Gold Prices Rallied This Summer?
Gold spiked 2.7% month-to-date as of Aug. 20, following a robust 5.2% gain in July. The driver? Growing anticipation that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates.
Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, set for Aug. 22-24. This event is seen as critical for gaining insight into the Fed's future policy direction.
Currently, Fed futures suggest a 73.5% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. Markets are also pricing in a cumulative 82 basis points in cuts by the end of the year, pointing to at least two more rate reductions in November and December.
These expectations have bolstered the bullish sentiment around gold. Lower interest rates generally make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive, as they diminish the allure of yield-bearing alternatives.
Adding to the momentum, the U.S. dollar has weakened sharply, hitting new 2024 lows against a basket of major currencies. As the dollar depreciates, gold—priced in dollars—becomes more affordable for foreign investors, further driving demand.
The chart below illustrates the inverse relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index, represented by the green line and tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), and gold prices, depicted by the yellow line and tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD).
Image: Benzinga ProYear-to-date, gold has surged 22%, setting the stage for its best annual performance since 2020, when it gained 25%. If the current trend holds, 2024 could mark gold's second-best year since 2008, when it rocketed up by 29.6%.
While most gold bar transactions happen through authorized dealers, it's becoming easier for individual investors to enter the market. Retail giants like Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Walmart Inc. are also selling the bullion, providing a more accessible entry point for consumers.
What Can a 400-Troy-Ounce Gold Bar Buy You?
With a 400-troy-ounce gold bar now worth about $1 million, here's what you could trade it for:
- 239,258 pounds of copper
- 17 Bitcoins according to the latest Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price of $58,730
- 21 Tesla Model Y vehicles
- 4 Ferrari Roma sports cars
- 7,852 shares of Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).
- 5,629 shares of Amazon Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).
- 4,422 shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).
- 2,375 shares of Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT).
- 1,894 shares of Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META).
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Image: Shutterstock
随着金价最近超过每盎司2,500美元,标准的400盎司金条的价值首次飙升至100万美元里程碑。
这场涨势并不是由于大量消费者急于购买珠宝或投资者突然对这个传统的安全避风港需求激增所致。相反,这场涨势主要由于围绕美联储货币政策的预期所推动。
为什么黄金价格在今年夏季上涨?
截至8月20日,金价月度上涨2.7%,7月份涨幅强劲,达到5.2%。驱动因素是什么?越来越多的预期,美联储将很快开始降息。
投资者特别关注即将到来的杰克逊霍尔研讨会,定于8月22日至24日举行。该活动被视为了解美联储未来政策方向的关键。
目前,联储期货表明,9月份降息25个基点的几率为73.5%。市场也在定价今年年底将有82个基点的降息,显示出至少还有两次的降息——11月和12月。
这些预期推高了金价的看涨情绪。一般来说,较低的利率使得像黄金这样的没有回报的资产更加有吸引力,因为它们削弱了带有收益的替代选择的吸引力。
此外,美元已急剧走弱,对一篮子主要货币汇率创下2024年新低。随着美元的贬值,以美元计价的黄金变得对外国投资者更加实惠,进一步推动了需求。
下图显示了美元指数(由绿线表示,并由Invesco Db USD Index Bullish Fund ETF跟踪(NYSE:UUP))和黄金价格(由黄线表示,并由SPDR Gold Trust跟踪(NYSE:GLD))之间的反向关系。
图片:Benzinga Pro今年以来,黄金大涨22%,为其自2020年以来表现最佳的一年做好了铺垫,当年涨幅达到25%。如果当前趋势持续下去,2024年可能成为自2008年以来黄金的第二个最佳年份,当时涨幅飙升了29.6%。
尽管大多数黄金条交易都是通过授权经销商进行的,但个人投资者进入市场变得更加容易。像Costco Wholesale Corp.(NASDAQ:COST)、Amazon.com Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN)和Walmart Inc.这样的零售巨头也在销售金条,为消费者提供了更易于进入市场的入口。
一根400盎司的黄金条能买什么?
现在一根400盎司的黄金条价值约为100万美元,你可以用它来做什么:
- 239,258磅的铜。
- 根据最新的比特币(CRYPTO: BTC)价格58,730美元,17个比特币。
- 21辆特斯拉Model Y汽车。
- 4辆法拉利罗马跑车。
- 7,852股英伟达公司(NASDAQ:NVDA)。
- 5,629股亚马逊公司(NASDAQ:AMZN)。
- 4,422股苹果公司(NASDAQ:AAPL)。
- 微软公司(纽交所:MSFT)的2,375股。
- Meta Platforms公司(纳斯达克:META)的1,894股。
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图片:shutterstock