Economists Predict BOJ To Raise Rates In December
Economists Predict BOJ To Raise Rates In December
According to a Reuters poll published on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates again by the end of the year, with a majority of economists predicting a December increase.
根据周三公布的路透社民意调查，日本银行（BOJ）预计将在年底再次提高利率，大多数经济学家预测将在十二月加息。
The survey, conducted from August 13 to 19, revealed that 57 per cent of the 54 economists polled anticipate the BOJ will raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 0.50 per cent by year-end. Among a subset of 22 economists who forecasted a rate hike and specified a month, around two-thirds predicted December, while one-third favoured October.
在8月13日至19日所进行的调查中，其中54位经济学家中，有57%预计，日本银行将在年底前将借贷利率上调25个基点至0.50%。在22位预测加息并指定月份的经济学家中，三分之二的人预测12月，另三分之一的人则看好10月。
Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute, stated, "The current policy rate is extremely accommodative. The BOJ will continue to raise interest rates towards the neutral rate as long as the 2 per cent price stability target is expected to be achieved."
伊藤忠研究所首席经济学家竹田淳表示：“目前的政策利率非常容易接受。只要预计通货膨胀目标达到2%，日本银行就会继续将利率提高到中立水平。”
The BOJ surprised many market participants in July by increasing base borrowing costs to 0.25 per cent from a range of 0 per cent to 0.1 per cent, just four months after abandoning negative rates. At that time, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated the likelihood of steady rate hikes in the future.
日本银行在7月份意外地将基础借贷利率从无利率区间（0~0.1%）上调至0.25%，仅仅四个月前它放弃了负利率政策。当时，日本银行行长上田宏暘暗示未来会保持稳定的加息。
However, Ueda's remarks came shortly before significant market turmoil saw the yen surge against the U.S. dollar and the Tokyo stock market experience its largest drop in 37 years. Since then, markets have stabilised.
不过，上田的言论来得很快，此后市场出现重大动荡，日元兑美元飙升，东京股市也经历了37年来最大的下跌。此后市场已经稳定。
BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida later tempered Ueda's hawkish stance, assuring that borrowing costs would not be raised during periods of market instability. Despite this, economists believe the BOJ's overall approach remains unchanged.
日本银行副行长内田進一后来缓和了上田的鹰派立场，他保证在市场不稳定期间不会提高利率。尽管如此，经济学家们认为日本银行的总体态度并没有改变。
Kazutaka Maeda, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute, commented, "It is too early to assume that the market turmoil following the July rate hike has altered the BOJ's planned path for future rate increases."
明治安田生命经济研究所的经济学家前田和隆评论说：“现在就认为市场在7月份加息后的动荡改变了日本银行未来加息的计划还为时过早。”
Japan's economy grew at a much faster-than-expected annualised rate of 3.1 per cent in the second quarter, rebounding from an earlier slump due to a strong rise in consumption, according to government data released last week. The poll forecasts growth of 0.6 per cent for the current fiscal year ending in March 2025, and 1.1 per cent for the following year, with inflation averaging 2.4 per cent this fiscal year and 1.9 per cent next.
根据上周公布的政府数据显示，日本经济在第二季度以远高于预期的年化增长率3.1%的速度增长，这是由于消费大幅度上升而复苏了以前的低迷。调查预测，本财年（截至2025年3月）增长0.6%，明年增长1.1%，通货膨胀率本财年平均为2.4%，明年为1.9%。
Source: Reuters
资料来源：路透社