Kamala Harris' Economic Plans Might Take A Big Bite Off Corporate Profits
Kamala Harris' Economic Plans Might Take A Big Bite Off Corporate Profits
Investors are evaluating the potential market implications of a Kamala Harris presidency, which could result in higher corporate taxes, impact consumer staples, and boost the solar energy sector.
投资者正在评估卡玛拉·哈里斯担任总统可能带来的市场影响,可能会导致企业税收上升,影响消费品行业,同时促进太阳能板块发展。
What Happened: The possibility of a Harris administration is a key focus at the Democratic convention this week. This comes after her late entry into the race following President Joe Biden's withdrawal, which has intensified the competition against Republican candidate Donald Trump.
发生了什么事:哈里斯政府可能性成为了本周民主党大会的关键焦点。这是在拜登总统退出竞选后她才进入竞选,这加剧了对抗共和党候选人特朗普的竞争。
Investors are considering the potential policy, regulatory, and taxation changes that could occur under a Harris administration, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at DWS Group, noted that Harris appears to be "more aggressive than Biden" on consumer issues that directly impact the market.
投资者正在考虑在哈里斯政府下可能发生的政策、监管和税收变化,据路透社周三报道。DWS集团的高级政治策略师弗兰克·凯利指出,哈里斯似乎在直接影响市场的消费者问题上比拜登更“积极”。
On Monday, Harris proposed increasing the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, a move her campaign says will ensure billionaires and big corporations pay their fair share. This proposal contrasts with Trump's record of reducing the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%.
周一,哈里斯提议将企业税率从21%提高到28%,她的竞选团队表示这一举措将确保亿万富翁和大公司公平地分担税收。这个提议与特朗普将企业税率从35%降至21%的记录形成鲜明对比。
A higher tax rate could help reduce the U.S. budget deficit by $1 trillion over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. However, it could also impact corporate profits. Goldman Sachs strategists estimate that each percentage point change in the corporate tax rate could shift S&P 500 earnings by slightly less than 1%.
较高的税率可能有助于在未来十年内减少美国预算赤字1万亿美元,根据无党派的负责任联邦预算委员会预测。然而,它也可能影响企业利润。高盛集团战略师估计,企业税率每变动一百分之一,可能使标普500指数的收益略微下降1%。
Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel, said, "Anything that reduces earnings should... have a negative impact on the stock market."
彼得·图兹,Chase投资咨询公司总裁表示,“任何能减少收益的事情都应……对股市产生负面影响。”
However, he added that there might be different offsets in the proposal.
然而,他补充说该提议可能会有不同的抵消。
Both Harris and Trump's proposals would require congressional approval. The control of the House of Representatives and Senate will be contested on Nov. 5. Harris' tax proposal could face significant hurdles in a divided Congress or one under Republican control.
哈里斯和特朗普的提案都需要获得国会批准。众议院和参议院的控制权将在11月5日争夺。哈里斯的税收提案可能会在一届分裂的国会或者由共和党控制的国会中面临重大障碍。
Why It Matters: According to a Benzinga poll, 42% of Americans trust Harris more to handle the economy, compared to 41% for Trump. This shift in public sentiment followed Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race.
为什么重要:根据彭博社的一项民意调查,42%的美国人更相信哈里斯能更好地处理经济问题,而相比之下,只有41%的人相信特朗普。这种公众情绪的转变发生在拜登退出2024年总统竞选之后。
However, Harris's economic proposals have sparked significant debate. Former Trump administration economist Kevin Hassett called Harris' proposals "chilling" and likened them to "communism plain and simple."
然而,哈里斯的经济提案引发了重大争议。前特朗普政府经济学家凯文·哈塞特称哈里斯的提案"令人恐惧",并将其比作"纯粹的共产主义"。
Harris has also outlined plans to ban price gouging on food and groceries, lower healthcare costs, and introduce a child tax credit. These proposals could impact consumer staples, healthcare stocks, and consumer spending, respectively.
哈里斯还概述了禁止食品和杂货漫天要价、降低医疗保健成本、以及推出儿童税收抵扣的计划。这些提案可能分别影响消费类必需品、医疗保健股票以及消费支出。
Furthermore, clean-energy initiatives launched under the Biden administration are expected to continue under the Harris administration, potentially offering relief to solar companies.
此外,拜登政府推出的清洁能源倡议预计将在哈里斯政府下继续实施,可能为太阳能公司带来缓解。