US Economy Adds 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Initially Reported: Urgency For Interest Rate Cuts Grows Further
US Economy Adds 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Initially Reported: Urgency For Interest Rate Cuts Grows Further
The U.S. economy experienced a downward revision of 818,000 non-farm payrolls between April 2023 and March 2024, according to government data released Wednesday.
根据周三发布的政府数据，美国经济在2023年4月至2024年3月之间的非农就业人数经历了下调818,000。
This adjustment represents a 0.5% decrease in overall job gains for the year, a greater fall than major U.S. investment banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase were anticipating.
这一调整代表了全年总体就业增长的0.5%下降，比高盛和摩根大通等美国主要投资银行预期的降幅更大。
Job figure revisions typically fall within a range of negative 0.3% to positive 0.3%. The last significant revision occurred in 2009, with a reduction of approximately 900,000 jobs or a 0.7% decrease.
就业数据修订通常在负0.3%至正0.3%的范围内。上一次重大修订发生在2009年，大约减少了900,000个工作岗位，即下降了0.7%。
Initial government estimates signaled 2.9 million job additions from April 2023 to March 2024, averaging around 242,000 jobs per month. Following the revision, the average monthly job gains dropped to 175,000.
初步政府估计显示，从2023年4月至2024年3月，新增了290万个工作岗位，平均每月约增加242,000个工作岗位。修订后，平均每月就业增长下降至175,000。
The revision affected various sectors, with private payrolls revised downward by 819,000. The largest declines were seen in professional and business services (-358,000), leisure and hospitality (-150,000), retail trade (-129,000) and manufacturing (-115,000).
修订影响了各个行业，私营部门就业人数下调了819,000。专业和商业服务(-358,000)、休闲和酒店业(-150,000)、零售业(-129,000)和制造业(-115,000)看到了最大的下降。
Conversely, there were upward revisions in private education and health services (+87,000) and transportation and warehousing (+56,400). Government payrolls saw a minimal upward revision of 1,000 jobs.
相反，在私人教育和卫生服务(+87,000)以及运输和仓储(+56,400)领域进行了上调。政府部门的工作岗位仅略微上调了1,000个。
Market Reactions
市场反应
The revised employment data signaled to market participants the U.S. labor market is weaker than previously believed.
修订后的就业数据向市场参与者表明，美国劳动力市场比以前预期的要虚弱。
In response, expectations for interest rate cuts increased, with investors concerned the economy may already be cooling. As a result, the market-implied probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September surged to 32.5%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
作为回应，市场对降息预期增加，投资者担心经济可能已经开始放缓。根据CME Group的FedWatch工具，9月份降息50个基点的市场隐含概率飙升至32.5%。
Traders fully discount a full percentage point of rate cut by year-end.
交易商完全预期到年底会有一个完整百分点的降息。
The U.S. Dollar Index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), weakened. Treasury yields were slightly lower.
由Invesco Db USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (纽交所: UUP) 跟踪的美元指数看多基金ETF (UUP) 走软。国债收益率稍有下降。
Stocks rallied further amid increased expectations for lower interest rates. The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) was up by 0.7% at 10:45 a.m. in New York.
股市进一步上涨，市场对降息预期增加。科技股重点关注的纳斯达克100 ETF (QQQ) 在纽约时间上午10点45分上涨0.7%。
Robust gains were also seen in the S&P 500, as monitored through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), up 0.5%, and in small caps, as tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), up 0.6%.
标普500指数表现良好，通过SPDR标普500 ETF Trust (纽交所: SPY) 继续上涨0.5%，小盘股通过iShares罗素2000指数ETF (纽交所: IWM) 上涨0.6%。
Markets now await minutes from the latest July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, scheduled for release at 2 p.m. ET.
市场现在正在等待7月最新联邦公开市场委员会会议的记录，计划在下午2点发布。
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