Is CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd (SZSE:000966) Using Too Much Debt?
Is CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd (SZSE:000966) Using Too Much Debt?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000966) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
有人认为,作为投资者,波动性而不是债务是考虑风险的最佳方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过:“波动性远非风险的同义词。”当我们考虑一家公司的风险程度时,我们总是喜欢看看它对债务的使用,因为债务过重可能会导致公司破产。我们可以看到,长源电力有限公司(SZSE:000966)在业务中确实使用了债务。但是这笔债务对股东来说是否令人担忧呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业发展的工具,但如果企业无力偿还其债权人,那么它就处于他们的掌控之下。资本主义的重要组成部分是“创造性毁灭”过程,在这个过程中,失败的企业被他们的银行家无情地清算。然而,更普遍的情况(虽然仍然很昂贵)是企业必须以便宜的股价稀释股东,以控制债务。当考虑企业使用多少债务时,首先要做的是考虑其现金和债务的总体情况,这样债务才能成为企业特别是资本密集型企业的重要工具。
What Is CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd's Net Debt?
长源电力有限公司的净债务是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd had debt of CN¥22.8b, up from CN¥17.9b in one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
下方的图片显示了2024年3月长源电力有限公司的债务为228亿人民币,比去年的179亿人民币增加。而且该公司现金流较少,净债务大致相同。
A Look At CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd's Liabilities
浏览长源电力有限公司的负债情况
The latest balance sheet data shows that CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd had liabilities of CN¥10.6b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥16.1b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥299.5m in cash and CN¥1.78b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥24.6b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新资产负债表数据显示,长源电力有限公司的短期负债为106亿元,到期后的负债为161亿元。与此相抵,公司持有2,9950万元现金和17.8亿元应收款项,期限不超过12个月。因此,公司的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和高出246亿元。
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥11.2b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
这种亏损对长源电力有限公司来说是个沉重的负担,就像一个孩子背着书包、体育装备和小号在挣扎的份量一样。因此,毫无疑问,我们会密切关注该公司的资产负债表。毕竟,如果今天公司必须偿付债务,长源电力有限公司很可能需要进行重大再融资。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Service Corporation International的债务是其EBITDA的3.5倍,而其EBIT可覆盖其利息开支的3.7倍。综合考虑,虽然我们不希望看到债务水平上升,但我们认为它可以应对当前的杠杆。好消息是,Service Corporation International在过去12个月中将其EBIT提高了2.9%,从而逐渐降低了其相对于收益的债务水平。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中获得了有关债务的大部分内容。但是,相对于资产负债表,更重要的是未来收益,这将决定Service Corporation International维持健康资产负债表的能力。如果您关注未来,您可以查看此免费报告,其中有分析师的利润预测。
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 9.0, it's fair to say CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd does have a significant amount of debt. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 2.5 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Looking on the bright side, CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd boosted its EBIT by a silky 48% in the last year. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)比率为9.0,可以说长源电力有限公司确实有相当大的债务。但好消息是,其利息偿付保障倍数为2.5倍,这意味着公司能够负责任地履行其义务。看到这一好处,长源电力有限公司去年EBIT增长了48%。类似这种增长可以增强公司的恢复力,使其更能够管理债务。在分析债务时,资产负债表显然是需要重点关注的领域。但更重要的是,未来收益将决定长源电力有限公司维持健康资产负债表的能力。所以,如果你关注未来,可以查看一份显示分析师预测盈利的免费报告。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last two years, CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最后,虽然税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受实实在在的现金。因此,我们明确需要看一下EBIT是否导致相应的自由现金流。在过去的两年中,长源电力烧掉了大量现金。虽然投资者无疑希望这种情况能在适当的时候逆转,但这显然意味着其债务使用的风险更高。
Our View
我们的观点
To be frank both CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. Overall, it seems to us that CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd (including 1 which is a bit concerning) .
坦率地说,长源电力的EBIT和自由现金流的转化以及其对总负债的掌控能力都让我们对其债务水平感到不安。但至少它在增长EBIT上表现得相当不错,这是令人鼓舞的。总体而言,对我们来说,长源电力的资产负债表对业务风险确实是一个风险。所以我们对这只股票几乎和一只饥饿的小猫对主人的鱼池一样谨慎:一朝被蛇咬,十年怕井绳。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中掌握到的债务信息最为重要。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表范围的风险。为此,你应该了解我们在长源电力发现的2个预警信号(其中1个有点令人担忧)。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有这些之后,您更感兴趣的是具有坚实资产负债表的快速增长公司,那么不要拖延,查看我们的净现金增长股票列表。
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