The Three-year Underlying Earnings Growth at LBX Pharmacy Chain (SHSE:603883) Is Promising, but the Shareholders Are Still in the Red Over That Time
The Three-year Underlying Earnings Growth at LBX Pharmacy Chain (SHSE:603883) Is Promising, but the Shareholders Are Still in the Red Over That Time
The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you're going to end up with some losing stocks. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term LBX Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company (SHSE:603883) shareholders. So they might be feeling emotional about the 60% share price collapse, in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 37%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 52% in the last 90 days.
事实上,如果您长期投资,最终会持有一些亏损的股票。但过去三年对长期持有老百姓药店连锁股份有限公司(SHSE:603883)的股东来说尤为艰难。因此,他们可能对这段时间内股价下跌60%感到情绪化。过去一年股价下跌了37%,因此我们怀疑许多股东并不高兴。股东最近的经历甚至更为艰难,股价在过去90天下跌了52%。
After losing 5.1% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
在过去的一个星期里下跌了5.1%,值得深入研究公司的基本面,以了解我们能从过去的表现中推断出什么。
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
不可否认的是,市场有时是高效的,但价格并不总是反映潜在的商业表现。一个不完美但简单的方法来考虑公司市场感知如何改变是比较每股收益(EPS)变化和股价变动。
Although the share price is down over three years, LBX Pharmacy Chain actually managed to grow EPS by 9.8% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
尽管股价在过去三年下跌,老百姓药店实际上设法将每股收益增长了9.8%。这是一个谜题,表明可能有什么临时支撑股价。另外,过去的增长预期可能是不合理的。
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
值得关注其他指标,因为EPS增长似乎与股价下跌不符。
Given the healthiness of the dividend payments, we doubt that they've concerned the market. It's good to see that LBX Pharmacy Chain has increased its revenue over the last three years. If the company can keep growing revenue, there may be an opportunity for investors. You might have to dig deeper to understand the recent share price weakness.
鉴于分红支付的健康状况,我们怀疑他们是否已引起市场关注。很高兴看到老百姓连锁药店在过去三年里增加了营业收入。如果公司能继续增长营业收入,股东可能会有机会。你可能需要深入了解最近股价下跌的原因。
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
下图显示了收益和营收随时间变化的情况(如果你点击图像,可以看到更多细节):
LBX Pharmacy Chain is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for LBX Pharmacy Chain in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
老百姓连锁药店为投资者所熟知,许多聪明的分析师已经尝试预测未来的利润水平。您可以在未来利润预估的交互式图表中看到分析师对老百姓连锁药店的预测。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, LBX Pharmacy Chain's TSR for the last 3 years was -58%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
重要考虑任何特定股票的总股东回报以及股价回报。股价回报仅反映股价的变化,TSR则包括了股息价值(假设已再投资)以及任何折价的股本筹资或分拆的利益。可以说TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更加完整的画面。事实上,老百姓连锁药店过去3年的TSR为-58%,超过了前面提到的股价回报。公司支付的股息因此提升了总股东回报。
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
We regret to report that LBX Pharmacy Chain shareholders are down 36% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 17%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with LBX Pharmacy Chain , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
遗憾地通报,老百姓药店连锁股东今年亏损36%(包括分红)。不幸的是,这比整体市场下跌17%还要糟糕。然而,可能只是股价受到了整体市场的不安情绪影响。如果有好的机会,可能值得密切关注基本面。不幸的是,去年的表现可能表明未解决的挑战,因为相比过去五年的年化损失9%,表现更差。我们知道巴伦·罗斯柴尔德曾说过投资者应该“在大街上流血时买进”,但我们提醒投资者必须首先确保他们在购买一个高质量的企业。我发现长期观察股价作为业务表现的一种代理很有趣。但是要真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,要考虑投资风险这一永恒的威胁。我们确定了老百姓药店的一个警示信号,了解它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
如果您喜欢与管理层一起购买股票,那么您可能会喜欢这个公司的免费列表。 (提示:其中许多公司不为人注意且具有吸引力的估值。)
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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