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Is EBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) Trading At A 49% Discount?
Is EBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) Trading At A 49% Discount?
Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, eBay fair value estimate is US$115
- Current share price of US$58.68 suggests eBay is potentially 49% undervalued
- The US$57.38 analyst price target for EBAY is 50% less than our estimate of fair value
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Calculation
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$2.28b | US$2.55b | US$2.60b | US$2.74b | US$2.86b | US$2.97b | US$3.07b | US$3.16b | US$3.26b | US$3.35b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x10 | Analyst x7 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x3 | Est @ 4.30% | Est @ 3.76% | Est @ 3.38% | Est @ 3.12% | Est @ 2.93% | Est @ 2.80% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% | US$2.1k | US$2.2k | US$2.1k | US$2.1k | US$2.0k | US$2.0k | US$1.9k | US$1.8k | US$1.7k | US$1.7k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$20b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.3b× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.5%) = US$73b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$73b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= US$37b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$56b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$58.7, the company appears quite undervalued at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
![1724320865859](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240822/42723674-0-16d08a0c4bd4ed5ec5ec62e40dd5c7d1.webp/bigjpg)
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at eBay as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.134. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for eBay
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Dividend information for EBAY.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Multiline Retail market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years.
- What else are analysts forecasting for EBAY?
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For eBay, we've put together three essential items you should assess:
- Risks: As an example, we've found 4 warning signs for eBay (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to consider before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does EBAY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
主要见解
- 使用二阶段自由现金流向股本,ebay的公允价值估计为115美元
- 当前的58.68美元股价表明ebay有可能被低估了49%
- 57.38美元的分析师目标价比我们的公允价值估计低了50%
在本文中,我们将通过预期未来现金流量并将其折现到现值来估算eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY)的内在价值。这次我们将使用折现现金流量(DCF)模型。像这样的模型可能超出了 lay person 的理解范围,但它们相当容易理解。
我们要警告的是,有许多方法可以对一个公司进行估值,并且与DCF一样,每种技术在某些情况下都有优势和劣势。如果您仍然对这种类型的估值有一些燃烧的问题,请查看Simply Wall St的分析模型。
计算方法
我们使用所谓的2阶段模型,这意味着我们有两个不同的现金流增长期。一般来说,第一个阶段是高增长,第二个阶段是低增长。在第一个阶段,我们需要估计未来10年业务的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的预测,但当这些不可用时,我们就会从上一个估计值或报告值推断出上一个自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流下降的公司将减缓缩小速度,而增长的自由现金流的公司在此期间增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映增长倾向于在早期比在后期更为缓慢。
普遍认为今天的一美元比将来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要贴现这些未来的现金流总和来得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流 (FCF) 预估值
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
杠杆自由现金流 ($, 百万) | 22.8亿美元 | 25.5亿美元 | 26亿美元 | 27.4亿美元 | 28.6亿美元 | 29.7亿美元 | 30.7亿美元 | 31.6亿美元 | 32.6亿美元 | 33.5亿美元 |
增长率估计来源 | 分析师共有10位 | 共计7位分析师。 | 分析师x3 | 分析师x3 | 4.30% | 估值约为3.76% | Est @ 3.38% | 以3.12%的速度估算 | 按照2.93%的估算 | 估计 @ 2.80% |
现值($,百万)按7.2%折现 | 2.1k美元 | 2.2k美元 | 2.1k美元 | 2.1k美元 | 2千美元 | 2千美元 | 1.9千美元 | 1.8千美元 | 1700美元 | 1700美元 |
("Est" = Simply Wall St 估计的自由现金流增长率)
十年现金流的现值 (PVCF) = 200亿美元
![](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240822/42723674-0-16d08a0c4bd4ed5ec5ec62e40dd5c7d1.webp/bigjpg)
重要假设
- 过去一年的收益增长超过了行业板块。
- 债务得到充分覆盖,收入和现金流决定了债务水平。
- 分红派息由收入和现金流决定。
- 相比多元化零售市场前25%的股息支付者,其股息相对偏低。
- 基于市盈率和预估公平价值,出现良好的价值。
- 未来3年的年度收益预计将下降。
接下来:
- 其他优秀企业:低负债,高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是构建强大企业基础的基础。为什么不探索我们交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有坚实业务基础的其他公司?
PS. Simply Wall St每天都会更新其对每只美国股票的折现现金流计算,因此,如果你想找到其他股票的内在价值,只需在此搜索即可。
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Australia Limited提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Moomoo Securities Australia Limited, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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