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A Look At The Fair Value Of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ:KALU)
A Look At The Fair Value Of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ:KALU)
Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Kaiser Aluminum fair value estimate is US$89.69
- Current share price of US$72.20 suggests Kaiser Aluminum is potentially trading close to its fair value
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ:KALU) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
The Calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$107.0m | US$105.8m | US$105.7m | US$106.5m | US$107.8m | US$109.6m | US$111.6m | US$114.0m | US$116.5m | US$119.1m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Est @ -1.14% | Est @ -0.05% | Est @ 0.72% | Est @ 1.25% | Est @ 1.63% | Est @ 1.89% | Est @ 2.07% | Est @ 2.20% | Est @ 2.29% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.3% | US$97.9 | US$88.5 | US$81.0 | US$74.6 | US$69.1 | US$64.3 | US$59.9 | US$55.9 | US$52.3 | US$48.9 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$692m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.3%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$119m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (9.3%– 2.5%) = US$1.8b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.8b÷ ( 1 + 9.3%)10= US$737m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.4b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$72.2, the company appears about fair value at a 20% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
![1724329251608](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240822/42733816-0-1228336fa976badebd9443fba971b091.webp/bigjpg)
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kaiser Aluminum as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.652. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Kaiser Aluminum
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is well covered by cash flow.
- Balance sheet summary for KALU.
- Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Significant insider buying over the past 3 months.
- Dividends are not covered by earnings.
- See KALU's dividend history.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Kaiser Aluminum, there are three important aspects you should consider:
- Risks: Be aware that Kaiser Aluminum is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for KALU's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
主要见解
- 使用2阶段自由现金流对凯撒铝业进行公允价值估算,估值为89.69美元。
- 当前股价为72.20美元,表明凯撒铝业的交易接近其公允价值。
今天我们将通过一种方法来估算凯撒铝业公司(NASDAQ:KALU)的内在价值,即估算公司未来的现金流,并将其折现到现值。折现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。在您认为您无法理解它之前,请继续阅读!实际上,这比您想象的要简单得多。
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是其未来所有现金流的现值之和。然而,DCF仅是众多估值指标之一,它并非没有缺陷。对于那些热衷于股权分析的学习者来说,在这里,Simply Wall St分析模型可能值得一提。
计算方法
我们正在使用2阶段增长模型,这意味着我们考虑公司2个增长阶段。在初始阶段,公司可能具有较高的增长率,第二阶段通常被认为具有稳定的增长率。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来10年内的业务现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的预测,但当这些不可得时,我们会推断出上一个自由现金流(FCF)的近似值。我们假设自由现金流缩减的公司将会减缓缩减速度,自由现金流增长的公司将会看到它们的增长率在此期间减缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期年份的增长速度比后期年份要慢。
DCF的核心概念是未来的每一美元都比现在的每一美元更不值钱,因此我们将这些未来的现金流贴现到当今的价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
杠杆自由现金流 ($, 百万) | 1.07亿美元 | 1.058亿美元 | US$52.3 | 1.065亿美元。 | 1.078亿美元 | 美元109.6m | 1.116亿美元 | 1724329251608 | Important Assumptions | 1.191亿美元 |
增长率估计来源 | 分析师x2 | 以-1.14%的速度估计 | 估计 @ -0.05% | 预计上涨0.72% | 预计 @ 1.25% | 估计为1.63% | Est @ 1.89% | 预计@ 2.07% | 以2.20%的速度为估算值 | 以2.29%的速度为估算值 |
以9.3%的折现率折现的现值(以百万美元为单位) | 97.9美元 | 8100万美元 | 7460万美元。 | 599万美元 | 93.8美元 | 5230 | 48.9美元 |
("Est" = Simply Wall St 估计的自由现金流增长率)
![](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240822/42733816-0-1228336fa976badebd9443fba971b091.webp/bigjpg)
重要假设
- 过去一年的收益增长超过了行业板块。
- 债务由现金流很好覆盖。
- 债务利息支付能力不太好。
- 与金属和矿业市场前25%的股息支付者相比,股息较低。
- 预计年度盈利增长将快于美国市场。
- 基于市盈率和预估公平价值,出现良好的价值。
- 过去3个月内有重要内部人士买进。
- 比起收益,股息不受支持。
接下来:
- 其他优秀企业:低负债,高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是构建强大企业基础的基础。为什么不探索我们交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有坚实业务基础的其他公司?
PS. Simply Wall St每天都会更新其对每只美国股票的折现现金流计算,因此,如果你想找到其他股票的内在价值,只需在此搜索即可。
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Australia Limited提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
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