Top Economist Forecasts 25 Basis Point Cut In September, Expects Jerome Powell To Adopt A 'Dovish Tone' At Jackson Hole
Top Economist Forecasts 25 Basis Point Cut In September, Expects Jerome Powell To Adopt A 'Dovish Tone' At Jackson Hole
David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS), shared his predictions for the forthcoming speech from the Federal Reserve chief in Jackson Hole.
黄金萨克斯集团(纽交所:GS)首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克尔分享了他对即将在杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储主席讲话的预测。
What Happened: Mericle suggested that a cut is broadly agreed upon by the committee following the latest Federal Reserve minutes. The uncertainty lies in whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points. He expects Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to present a more dovish version of the comments made after the July FOMC meeting.
发生了什么:梅里克尔建议,委员会在最新的联邦储备委员会会议纪要后,普遍同意进行削减。不确定性在于削减幅度是25点基点还是50点基点。他预计美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在七月货币政策委员会会议后做出更多鸽派的评论。
"I suspect what we will get from Powell tomorrow is a more dovish version of the remarks that we gave after the July FOMC meeting; a little bit more dovish, a little bit more confident on inflation, a little bit more concerned about the labor market," Mericle said while appearing for CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime."
“我怀疑我们明天从鲍威尔那里得到的是七月货币政策委员会会议后更鸽派的言论;更加鸽派,更加对通胀有信心,更加关注劳动力市场的问题,”梅里克尔在出现在 CNBC 的“收盘铃后加班”节目中说。
He also conveyed his expectation that the August employment report would show an improvement over July's. In this case, he forecasts a 25 basis point cut in September. He also pointed to potential risks, such as a quicker pace of cutting if Powell shows increased concern over the labor market or the current level of the funds rate.
他还表达了他对八月就业报告将显示好于七月的预期。在这种情况下,他预测九月会降息25点基点。他还指出了潜在风险,例如,如果鲍威尔表现出对劳动力市场或目前资金利率水平的担忧增加,就可能会采取更快的降息步伐。
On the topic of inflation fears, Mericle indicated that the committee is "moving beyond that," given the recent positive inflation data.
在通胀担忧方面,梅里克尔表示,鉴于最近的积极通胀数据,委员会正在“摆脱这一问题”。
"The people who were more concerned will kind of move toward where the rest of the committee is and say, 'you know, we are kind of over this problem,' and be more ready to cut," he said, adding that the larger issue is the perceived downside risk in the labor market and whether it warrants a more aggressive move.
“更担心的人将会更趋向于委员会的观点,并会说,‘你知道,我们已经解决了这个问题,’ 并会更愿意削减,”他说,并补充说更大的问题是劳动力市场的认知下行风险,以及是否有必要采取更积极的行动。
Why It Matters: Investors' expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting have been strengthened by the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, which highlighted continued progress in disinflation. This has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts.
为什么重要:七月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要加强了投资者对于九月会议降息的预期,强调了通缩的持续进展。这导致了美元指数的下降,正如纽交所Invesco Db 美元指数看涨基金etf(NYSE:UUP)所跟踪的那样,因为对美联储降息预期上升。
Investors are keenly watching for any short-term monetary policy guidance from Powell's speech at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium, as the market has historically been sensitive to his remarks.
投资者急切关注美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会上鲍威尔讲话中对短期货币政策的指导,因为市场历来对他的言论非常敏感。
Members of the Federal Reserve, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, have hinted at a potential shift towards lowering interest rates as early as September, just before Powell's highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
美联储成员,包括波士顿联邦储备银行主席苏珊·科林斯和费城联邦储备银行主席帕特里克·哈克,暗示将可能在九月提前降低利率,就在鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上备受期待的演讲之前。
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Image via Flickr
图片来源:Flickr
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
本报道使用Benzinga Neuro生成,并由Pooja Rajkumari编辑