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Is Shenzhen SEGLtd (SZSE:000058) A Risky Investment?

Is Shenzhen SEGLtd (SZSE:000058) A Risky Investment?

深圳深发展(SZSE:000058)是一个风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  08/23 18:04

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Shenzhen SEG Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000058) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

伯克希尔哈撒韦的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录(Li Lu)毫不掩饰地表示:“最大的投资风险不是价格波动,而是是否会遭受永久性资本损失。” 当我们考虑一家公司有多大风险时,我们总是喜欢看看它的债务使用情况,因为债务过重可能导致破产。就像许多其他公司一样,深圳SEG股份有限公司(SZSE:000058)也在使用债务。但真正的问题是,这些债务是否会让公司变得风险更大。

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

债务是帮助企业成长的一种工具,但如果企业无力偿还债权人,则存在于债权人的支配之下。最坏的情况下,如果一个公司无法偿还债权人,则可能破产。虽然这种情况不太常见,但我们经常看到负债企业因债权人被迫以贴现价格筹集资本而永久稀释股东。当然,许多公司使用债务为增长提供资金,并没有任何负面后果。当我们考虑债务水平时,首先要考虑现金和债务水平。

What Is Shenzhen SEGLtd's Net Debt?

深圳SEG有限公司的净债务是多少?

As you can see below, Shenzhen SEGLtd had CN¥842.0m of debt, at March 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥1.22b in cash, so it actually has CN¥375.3m net cash.

如下所示,深圳SEG有限公司在2024年3月有人民币84200万元的债务,与前一年相当。您可以单击图表以获得更详细的信息。 但是,其资产负债表显示它持有人民币12.2亿的现金,因此实际上净现金为37530万元。

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SZSE:000058 Debt to Equity History August 23rd 2024
SZSE:000058的资产负债比历史数据于2024年8月23日。

How Strong Is Shenzhen SEGLtd's Balance Sheet?

深赛格b的资产负债表有多强?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Shenzhen SEGLtd had liabilities of CN¥2.10b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥723.4m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.22b and CN¥453.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥1.15b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

我们可以从最近的资产负债表看出,深赛格b有应付的短期债务21亿人民币,还有72340万人民币的长期债务。另一方面,它有12.2亿人民币的现金和短期应收账款45320万人民币。因此,它的负债总计比现金和短期应收款多115亿人民币。

Of course, Shenzhen SEGLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥6.06b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Shenzhen SEGLtd boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

当然,深赛格b的市值为60.6亿人民币,因此这些负债可能是可以承受的。但是有足够的负债,我们肯定建议股东继续监视资产负债表的变化。尽管有显著的负债,深赛格b拥有净现金,因此可以说它没有沉重的债务负担!

The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Shenzhen SEGLtd if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 77% cut to EBIT over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Shenzhen SEGLtd will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

如果管理层无法阻止过去一年EBIT减少了77%,那么深赛格b的债务负担将变得至关重要。盈利下降(如果趋势持续下去)最终可能会使即使是适度的债务变得非常风险。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是不能完全孤立地看待债务;因为深赛格b将需要盈利来偿还债务。因此,如果您渴望了解更多有关其盈利的信息,可能值得查看其长期盈利趋势的图表。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Shenzhen SEGLtd has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Happily for any shareholders, Shenzhen SEGLtd actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

但最后的考虑也很重要,因为一家公司无法用虚假利润来偿还债务;它需要真金白银。虽然深赛格b在资产负债表上有净现金,但仍然值得一看其将EBIT转化为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们了解它构建(或侵蚀)现金余额的速度。令任何股东高兴的是,深赛格b在过去三年实际上产生的自由现金流比EBIT多。这种强劲的现金转化让我们兴奋不已,就像达夫特朋克(Daft Punk)音乐会上的观众一样。

Summing Up

总之

Although Shenzhen SEGLtd's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥375.3m. And it impressed us with free cash flow of CN¥346m, being 375% of its EBIT. So we don't have any problem with Shenzhen SEGLtd's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Shenzhen SEGLtd you should be aware of.

虽然深赛格有限公司的资产负债表并不是特别强,由于总负债,看到它有人民币37530万的净现金显然是积极的。而且令我们印象深刻的是,它的自由现金流为人民币34600万,相当于EBIT的375%。因此,我们对深赛格的债务使用没有任何问题。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表之外的风险。有一个例子是:我们发现了一份有关深赛格有限公司的1个警告信号,你应该注意。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

归根结底,专注于没有净债务的公司往往更好。您可以访问我们的特别列表,其中包括所有表现出盈利增长轨迹的公司。这是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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