The Consensus EPS Estimates For West China Cement Limited (HKG:2233) Just Fell Dramatically
The Consensus EPS Estimates For West China Cement Limited (HKG:2233) Just Fell Dramatically
One thing we could say about the analysts on West China Cement Limited (HKG:2233) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
对于中国西部水泥有限公司(HKG:2233)的分析师们可以说一件事情-他们并不乐观,刚刚对该公司的近期(法定)预测进行了重大的负面修正。营业收入和每股收益(EPS)的预测均被下调,分析师们看到了灰色的前景。
After this downgrade, West China Cement's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥10b in 2024. This would be a huge 23% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to leap 295% to CN¥0.20. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥11b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.26 in 2024. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.
在此次下调之后,中国西部水泥的五位分析师现在预测2024年的营业收入将达到100亿人民币。与过去12个月相比,这将是销售额的巨大增长23%。预计法定每股收益将跃升295%至0.20人民币。在最新的更新之前,分析师们曾预测2024年的营业收入为110亿人民币,每股收益为0.26人民币。看起来分析师们的情绪大幅下降,收入预期有所下调,每股收益也大幅下调。
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Analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥1.32, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on West China Cement's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values West China Cement at CN¥1.48 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥1.07. This shows there is still some diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
分析师们对于中国西部水泥的估价CN¥1.32没有做出重大变化,这表明下调预测不会对中国西部水泥的估值产生长期影响。然而,还有一种思考价格目标的方法,那就是看分析师提出的价格目标范围,因为广泛的估计范围可能表明对于业务的可能结果存在多种观点。目前,最看好的分析师将中国西部水泥的股价估计为CN¥1.48,而最看淡的则将其估计为CN¥1.07。这显示估值仍存在一定的多样性,但分析师们似乎并非完全对这只股票持买入或卖出的观点。
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting West China Cement's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 50% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.5% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that West China Cement is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
当然,另一种看待这些预测的方式是将它们与整个行业放在一起考虑。分析师们明确预期中国西部水泥的增长将加快,预计到2024年末的年化增长率达到50%,与过去五年每年的5.5%的历史增长相比,处于较为有利的地位。相比之下,我们的数据显示,在类似行业中其他受到分析师关注的公司预计每年营业收入增长3.9%。考虑到营业收入的预计加速增长,很明显,预计中国西部水泥将比行业增长更快。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for West China Cement. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on West China Cement after the downgrade.
新的预估数据中最大的问题是分析师们调低了每股收益预估,暗示西部中国水泥未来可能面临业务困境。尽管分析师们调降了营业收入预估,但这些预测仍暗示着收入将会比整个市场表现更好。我们还惊讶地发现目标价没有改变。不过,业务状况的恶化(假设预测准确!)可以成为股价的前导指标,所以对于分析师降级后对西部中国水泥卖方的更谨慎我们不会责怪投资者。
Worse, West China Cement is labouring under a substantial debt burden, which - if today's forecasts prove accurate - the forecast downgrade could potentially exacerbate. See why we're concerned about West China Cement's balance sheet by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.
更糟糕的是,西部中国水泥正面临巨额债务负担,今天的预测如果准确的话,预测的下调可能会加重这一负担。请访问我们平台上的免费风险仪表板,了解为什么我们对西部中国水泥的资产负债表感到担忧。
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
另一件需要考虑的事情是管理层和董事最近是否在买卖股票。在我们的平台上,您可以查看过去12个月所有公开市场股票交易的概述。
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