IOI Corporation reported its FY24 core earnings, which aligned with in-house projections but fell short of consensus estimates. Analysts have maintained varied outlooks on the stock, with recommendations ranging from HOLD to REDUCE.
The HOLD call, which maintains a target price of RM3.94, anticipates a 15% year-on-year growth in core PATMI for FY25, driven by improved upstream output and a better downstream outlook. Meanwhile, another analysis reiterates a REDUCE rating with an unchanged target price of RM3.25, citing persistent challenges in the downstream segment.
For FY24, IOI Corporation's core PATMI reached RM1.12 billion, marking a 14% decline year-on-year. The upstream segment remained the primary contributor to the company's performance, with an EBIT of RM996 million, a marginal 1% increase year-on-year. This growth was supported by a 4% rise in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) output, which helped offset a 6% drop in the average selling price of crude palm oil (CPO). Additionally, the company's all-in operating cost for the fiscal year was estimated at RM2,225 per tonne, reflecting a 6% year-on-year decrease. Contributions from plantation associates also saw a notable increase, growing by 11% to RM206 million.
However, the downstream segment presented challenges for IOI. The EBIT for this division fell sharply by 70% year-on-year to RM180 million, driven by a 19% drop in revenue and significant margin contraction. The refining sub-segment, in particular, faced difficulties due to high feedstock prices and stiff competition, especially from players in Indonesia. Although the oleochemical sub-segment showed some resilience, benefiting from higher demand for cocoa butter equivalent products amidst rising cocoa prices, overall downstream performance remained weak.
Looking forward, analysts are cautious about the downstream outlook for FY25. While there may be some improvement in the first half of the fiscal year as European Union customers stock up ahead of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) implementation, the sector is expected to face continued margin pressures due to overcapacity in Indonesian refineries. This is likely to be partially offset by better performance in the plantation segment, supported by production growth, high CPO prices, and lower production costs.
In light of the mixed results, IOI Corporation declared a second interim dividend of 5 sen per share, bringing the total dividend for FY24 to 9.5 sen, slightly lower than the 11.0 sen distributed in FY23.
IOI Corporation报告了其24财年核心盈利情况,与内部预测一致,但低于一致预期。分析师对该股的看法各不相同,建议从持有到减少不等。
HOLD看涨期权维持在3.94令吉的目标价格,预计25财年核心PATMI同比增长15%,这要归因于上游产出的改善和下游前景的改善。同时,另一项分析重申了REDUCE评级,目标价保持不变,为3.25令吉,理由是下游细分市场持续存在挑战。
在24财年,IOI Corporation的核心PATMI达到11.2令吉,同比下降14%。上游板块仍然是公司业绩的主要贡献者,息税前利润为99600万令吉,同比小幅增长1%。这一增长得到了新鲜水果束(FFB)产量增长4%的支持,这有助于抵消粗棕榈油(CPO)平均销售价格6%的下降。此外,该公司本财年的总运营成本估计为每吨2,225令吉,同比下降6%。种植园同伙的捐款也显著增加,增长了11%,达到20600万令吉。
但是,下游细分市场给IOI带来了挑战。受收入下降19%和利润率大幅收缩的推动,该部门的息税前利润同比大幅下降70%,至18000万令吉。由于原料价格高企和激烈的竞争,尤其是来自印度尼西亚参与者的激烈竞争,炼油细分市场尤其面临困难。尽管在可可价格上涨的情况下,受益于对可可脂当量产品的需求增加,油脂化学细分市场表现出一定的弹性,但整体下游表现仍然疲软。
展望未来,分析师对25财年的下游前景持谨慎态度。尽管由于欧盟客户在欧盟森林砍伐条例(EUDR)实施之前囤积,本财年上半年可能会有所改善,但由于印度尼西亚炼油厂产能过剩,该行业预计将面临持续的利润压力。在产量增长、高CPO价格和较低的生产成本的支持下,种植园领域的业绩改善可能会部分抵消这一点。
鉴于业绩喜忧参半,IOI Corporation宣布第二次派发每股5仙的中期股息,使24财年的总股息达到9.5先令,略低于23财年的11.0仙分配。