Top Nvidia Analyst Sees No Major Impact From Blackwell Delay, But Flags One Caveat He's Wary About Ahead Of Earnings
Top Nvidia Analyst Sees No Major Impact From Blackwell Delay, But Flags One Caveat He's Wary About Ahead Of Earnings
Street's much-awaited earnings report is almost upon us, and artificial intelligence stalwart Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) is widely expected to clear the lofty goals. Ahead of the results, an analyst at Morgan Stanley said he is comfortable with the "high expectations."
纳斯达克上市公司NVIDIA Corp.(股票代码:NVDA)的人工智能领域处于领先地位,其备受期待的财报即将公布,预计将实现高昂的目标。在发布财报之前,摩根士丹利的一位分析师表示他对“高期望”感到满意。
The Nvidia Analyst:
英伟达分析师:
Joseph Moore has an Overweight rating and a $144 price target for Nvidia shares.
Joseph Moore 给予英伟达股票超配评级, 并设定144美元的目标价格。
The Nvidia Thesis:
英伟达论点:
Nvidia stock has fairly weathered concerns surrounding potential delays in Blackwell shipments, said Moore in a note released late Sunday. Near-term business is strong and Blackwell ramp-up will likely happen this year as per initial guidance, he said.
摩尔在周日晚间发布的一份报告中表示,英伟达股票已经相当顺利地应对了关于黑韦尔货物潜在延误的担忧。短期业务强劲,并且根据最初的指导,黑韦尔的扩产可能会在今年发生。
Moore expects some volume in October and a more material ramp-up in the January quarter. The management is likely to stick to its script and say "they are on track to volume" and potentially not even acknowledge tactical setbacks, he said.
摩尔预期10月会有些许成交量增加,并且在一月份可能会有更重大的扩产。他说,管理层很可能会继续按原计划进行,并表示“他们将按计划推动扩产”,并且可能甚至不会承认战术上的挫折。
Why Blackwell Delay Shouldn't Matter
为什么黑韦尔货物延误并不重要
The shift in the timing of Blackwell shipment doesn't matter very much, as supply and customer demand have rapidly pivoted to H200, the analyst said. "Customer enthusiasm for Blackwell is at very high levels, but the utility of a small volume of Blackwell in the initial ramp phase is somewhat lower," he said.
分析师说,黑韦尔货物发货时间的变化并不重要,因为供应和客户需求已经迅速转向H200。他说:“客户对黑韦尔的热情非常高,但是在初始扩产阶段,黑韦尔的小体积用途略低。”
Moore said it will take time for Blackwell's demand from cloud businesses to pick up, adding that Hopper is seeing exceptionally strong demand from this end market. At least some hyper scalers may prefer to get more Hoppers as they will need high-volume clusters of Blackwell to get relevant outcomes, he said.
摩尔表示,黑韦尔在云业务需求上会需要一些时间才能增长,他补充说,霍珀在这一终端市场看到了异常强劲的需求。至少一些超大规模运算服务商可能更喜欢使用更多的霍珀,因为他们将需要大规模的黑韦尔集群来获得相关的结果,他说。
H20 – Margin Dampener?
H20 – 毛利率抑制因素?
The H20 ramp-up, Moore said, is also a meaningful contributor. H20 is the China-specific AI accelerator of Nvidia that helps the company to sidestep the U.S. ban on China chip exports. Citing checks in Asia, the analyst said H20 builds have increased to about 1.2 million units for the year, at an average selling price of $13-15k.
摩尔表示,H20的增长也是一个有意义的贡献者。H20是英伟达的中国特定人工智能加速器,有助于该公司规避美国对中国芯片出口的禁令。分析师称,根据亚洲的调查结果,H20的制造量已经增加到约120万个装置,年均售价为13-15万美元。
Accordingly, the H20 could fetch more than $10 billion in revenue over the next three quarters, Moore said. The analyst also said fears of margin compression due to the low-cost H20s are getting blown out of proportion. "If H200 has 80% gross margins at $22k, that would imply cost of sales of about $4400; if H20 has 20% lower costs, or about $3600, then the average selling price of $14k would still drive about 74% gross margin, much higher than some of the bear cases," he added.
因此,摩尔表示,未来三个季度,H20可能会带来超过100亿美元的营业收入。分析师还表示,由于H20的低成本,导致毛利率压缩的担忧被夸大了。“如果H200的毛利率为80%,售价为22,000美元,这意味着销售成本约为4400美元;如果H20的成本低于20%,约为3600美元,那么售价为14,000美元仍将产生大约74%的毛利率,比一些悲观情况高得多,”他补充说。
The Risk
风险
Moore pointed to climbing investor expectations as the only caveat. The analyst said for the stock to remain unchanged, the company has to guide in the $33 billion to $34 billion range for the fiscal third quarter.
摩尔指出,唯一的风险是投资者预期不断攀升。分析师表示,为了使股价保持不变,公司必须在财务第三季度引导范围在330亿至340亿美元。
"We are generally comfortable with high expectations and expect visibility to improve as new products ramp," he added.
“对于高预期,我们一般感到舒适,并预计随着新产品的推出,可见度会提高,”他补充说。
Q2 Expectation
Q2 期望
Here's a compilation of Morgan Stanley's estimates for the second and third quarters and fiscal year 2025 versus the consensus:
以下是摩根士丹利对2025财年第二季度、第三季度和整个财年的预估汇总,与市场共识相比:
Q2'25 |
Q3'25 |
FY25 |
|
Revenue |
$28.17B |
$30.22B |
$152.65B |
Gross margin |
75.6% |
75.7% |
75.1% |
EPS |
63 cents |
68 cents |
$3.53 |
2025财年第二季度 |
2025财年第三季度 |
FY25 |
|
营业收入 |
281.7亿美元 |
302.2亿美元 |
1,526.5亿美元 |
毛利率 |
75.6% |
75.7% |
75.1% |
每股收益 |
63美分 |
68美分 |
$3.53 |
In premarket trading, Nvidia shares rose 0.54% to $127.14, according to Benzinga Pro data.
根据Benzinga Pro的数据,在盘前交易中,英伟达股票上涨0.54%,至127.14美元。