Powell's Statement Shakes The Financial Markets
Powell's Statement Shakes The Financial Markets
The US dollar bore the brunt of the impact of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech last week which also sent reverberations through the financial markets.
上周美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话对美元造成了重大冲击，也在金融市场上引发了震荡。
In the days leading up to Mr Powell's address, the dollar had already been under pressure, slipping around 1.5% as various Fed officials hinted at possible interest rate cuts.
在鲍威尔先生的讲话前几天，美元已经承受了压力，因为各种美联储官员暗示可能进行利率削减。
USDIndex 3% Drop
美元指数下跌了3%。
Powell's remarks didn't just meet expectations—they amplified them. What stood out were the nuances in his delivery.
鲍威尔的言论不仅满足了预期，还放大了预期。他的讲话中的细微差别显著。
Unlike the typically cautious and somewhat opaque language often used by central bankers, Powell's tone was unusually direct and assertive.
与通常由央行行长采用的谨慎和有些模糊的语言不同，鲍威尔的语调异常直接和肯定。
He left little doubt that a rate cut in September was almost a foregone conclusion.
他毫不掩饰地表示，今年9月的降息几乎是板上钉钉的事实。
Powell also turned his focus to the labour market, expressing heightened concern about its potential vulnerabilities.
鲍威尔还把焦点转向劳动市场，并对其潜在脆弱性表达了更高度的关切。
His statement that the Fed does not "seek or welcome" further weakening in employment, coupled with a commitment to do "everything we can" to support jobs, signalled a deeper level of worry about the economy's health than previously conveyed.
他的声明称，美联储不“寻求或欢迎”就业岗位进一步削弱，并承诺“竭尽全力”支持就业，这表明对经济健康状况的担忧更深。
This raised the possibility that the Fed might opt for a more substantial rate cut—perhaps as much as 50 basis points—in September.
这增加了美联储在9月可能选择进行更大面额的降息（可能高达50个基点）的可能性。
Interestingly, Powell's speech lacked the confident tone that usually accompanies a series of moderate 25 basis point cuts.
有趣的是，鲍威尔的讲话缺乏通常伴随着一系列温和的25个基点降息的自信语气。
Instead, he emphasized that future decisions would hinge on incoming data and the evolving economic outlook. His pledge to support the labour market suggested that the Fed might be prepared to take more aggressive action, especially given that the labour market is no longer seen as a primary driver of inflation.
相反，他强调未来的决策将取决于即将到来的数据和不断演变的经济前景。他承诺支持劳动力市场表明，美联储可能准备采取更积极的行动，特别是考虑到劳动力市场不再被视为通胀的主要驱动因素。
The impact of Powell's speech was immediate and significant. Short-term Treasury yields plunged, and the dollar saw a sharp decline.
鲍威尔的讲话立即产生了重大影响。短期国债收益率暴跌，美元急剧下降。
Over the past 16 days, the dollar has dropped nearly 3.5%, marking its steepest decline since late 2022. This slide brought the dollar dangerously close to the lows it reached in December 2023 and July 2023.
在过去的16天里，美元下跌了近3.5%，创下自2022年末以来最陡的下跌。这次下滑使美元距离其在2023年12月和2023年7月所达到的低点危险地接近。
If it falls below the July 2023 low of 99.578, further downward pressure could ensue, particularly as the market looks ahead to the crucial jobs report on September 6th.
如果跌破2023年7月低点99.578，可能会进一步增加下行压力，尤其是当市场展望9月6日关键的就业报告时。
A weak report could drive the dollar to levels not seen since the early stages of the global inflation shock in early 2022, making the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report a pivotal moment for the dollar's trajectory.
一份疲弱的报告可能会将美元推向自2022年全球通胀冲击初期以来所未见的水平，使即将发布的非农就业报告成为美元走势的关键时刻。