Are Investors Undervaluing Jabil Inc. (NYSE:JBL) By 34%?
Are Investors Undervaluing Jabil Inc. (NYSE:JBL) By 34%?
Key Insights
- Jabil's estimated fair value is US$162 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of US$108 suggests Jabil is potentially 34% undervalued
- Analyst price target for JBL is US$135 which is 17% below our fair value estimate
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Jabil Inc. (NYSE:JBL) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Crunching The Numbers
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$1.36b | US$1.20b | US$1.12b | US$1.07b | US$1.05b | US$1.04b | US$1.05b | US$1.05b | US$1.07b | US$1.09b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ -6.96% | Est @ -4.13% | Est @ -2.14% | Est @ -0.75% | Est @ 0.23% | Est @ 0.91% | Est @ 1.39% | Est @ 1.72% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.5% | US$1.3k | US$1.0k | US$901 | US$803 | US$731 | US$674 | US$629 | US$590 | US$556 | US$526 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$7.7b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.5%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.1b× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.5%– 2.5%) = US$22b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$22b÷ ( 1 + 7.5%)10= US$11b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$18b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$108, the company appears quite undervalued at a 34% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Jabil as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.221. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Jabil
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Balance sheet summary for JBL.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electronic market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years.
- What else are analysts forecasting for JBL?
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Jabil, we've compiled three further aspects you should look at:
- Risks: For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Jabil (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does JBL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
主要见解
- 捷普科技的估计公允价值是162美元,基于2阶段股权自由现金流
- 目前108美元的股价表明捷普科技可能被低估34%
- JBL的分析师价格目标是135美元,比我们的公允价值估计低17%
今天我们将通过一种方法来估算捷普科技股票的内在价值(NYSE:JBL),即将公司的预测未来现金流折现回今天的价值。贴现现金流模型是我们将应用的工具。这样的模型可能对普通人来说似乎难以理解,但它们实际上很容易理解。
公司可以用很多种方式进行估值,因此我们指出DCF并不适用于每一种情况。 如果您仍然对这种估值方法有疑问,请查看Simply Wall St分析模型。
数据统计
我们正在使用2阶段增长模型,这意味着我们考虑公司2个增长阶段。在初始阶段,公司可能具有较高的增长率,第二阶段通常被认为具有稳定的增长率。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来10年内的业务现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的预测,但当这些不可得时,我们会推断出上一个自由现金流(FCF)的近似值。我们假设自由现金流缩减的公司将会减缓缩减速度,自由现金流增长的公司将会看到它们的增长率在此期间减缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期年份的增长速度比后期年份要慢。
通常我们认为今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,因此这些未来的现金流的总和被贴现到今天的价值。
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
杠杆自由现金流 ($, 百万) | 1.36十亿美元 | 12.0亿美元 | 11.2亿美元 | 10.7亿美元 | 10.5亿美元 | 10.4亿美元 | 10.5亿美元 | 10.5亿美元 | 10.7亿美元 | 27年自由现金流为10.9亿美元。 |
增长率估计来源 | 分析师x2 | 分析师x2 | 估计值为-4.13% | 预计为-2.14%时的金额 | 预计@-0.75% | 预期 @ 0.23% | 预估 @ 0.91% | 预计@1.39% | 预计为1.72% | |
按7.5%贴现的现值($,百万美元) | 1.3千美元 | 1.0千美元 | 901美元 | 803美元 | 731 | 674美元。 | 629美元 | 590。 | 556美元 | 526美元 |
("Est" = Simply Wall St 估计的自由现金流增长率)
10年现金流的现值(PVCF) = 美元7.7亿
假设
- 过去一年的收益增长超过了行业板块。
- 债务不被视为风险。
- 与电子市场前25%的股息支付者相比,分红较低。
- 基于市盈率和预估公平价值,出现良好的价值。
- 未来3年的年度收益预计将下降。
下一步:
- 其他优秀企业:低负债,高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是构建强大企业基础的基础。为什么不探索我们交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有坚实业务基础的其他公司?
PS. Simply Wall St每天都会更新其对每只美国股票的折现现金流计算,因此,如果你想找到其他股票的内在价值,只需在此搜索即可。
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Australia Limited提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Moomoo Securities Australia Limited, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Australia Limited提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Moomoo Securities Australia Limited, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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