We Think BorgWarner (NYSE:BWA) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think BorgWarner (NYSE:BWA) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, BorgWarner Inc. (NYSE:BWA) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
有人认为,作为投资者,最好的风险思考方式是波动性,而不是债务,但沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过'波动性与风险远非同义词。'因此,聪明的资金知道,债务通常涉及破产,是评估公司风险性的非常重要因素。重要的是,博格华纳股份有限公司(纽交所:BWA)确实负债。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务产生了多少风险?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
为什么债务会带来风险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
当一家企业无法轻松地通过自由现金流或以有吸引力的价格筹集资本来满足债务义务时,债务和其他负债就会变得很危险。 最终,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法定义务,股东们可能一无所获。 然而,一个更常见(但仍然痛苦的)情景是,它必须以低价募集新的股权资本,从而永久稀释股东。 当然,债务的好处在于,它通常代表了廉价的资本,特别是当它以高回报率的公司代替稀释时。 当我们考虑一家公司的债务使用时,我们首先看现金和债务。
How Much Debt Does BorgWarner Carry?
博格华纳承担了多少债务?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that BorgWarner had debt of US$3.73b at the end of June 2024, a reduction from US$4.26b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.29b, its net debt is less, at about US$2.44b.
下面的图片显示,博格华纳在2024年6月底的债务为37.3亿美元,较去年42.6亿美元有所减少。然而,由于它拥有12.9亿美元的现金储备,其净债务更少,约为24.4亿美元。
A Look At BorgWarner's Liabilities
查看博格华纳的负债情况
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that BorgWarner had liabilities of US$3.71b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$4.11b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.29b as well as receivables valued at US$3.13b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$3.41b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
我们可以从最近的资产负债表看到,博格华纳有371亿美元的短期到期负债,以及411亿美元的长期到期负债。抵消这些义务的是,它拥有129亿美元的现金,以及价值313亿美元的应收款项,其中在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收款项的组合多341亿美元。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since BorgWarner has a market capitalization of US$7.66b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
虽然这看起来可能很多,但并不算太糟糕,因为博格华纳的市值为766亿美元,所以如果需要的话,它可能通过增加资本来加强其资产负债表。然而,仍然值得仔细看一下它偿付债务的能力。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
为了对公司的债务相对于其收益进行规模适应,我们计算其净债务与利息、税、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)之比及其税前收益(EBIT)与利息支出之比(利息保障倍数)。因此,我们既考虑到不包括折旧和摊销费用在内的收益,又包括折旧和摊销费用的收益相对于债务。
BorgWarner has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.3. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 43.6 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Fortunately, BorgWarner grew its EBIT by 4.4% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if BorgWarner can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
博格华纳的净负债/息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)比率仅为1.3。它的息税前利润(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出高达43.6倍。因此,你可以认为它受到的债务威胁不比大象受到老鼠的威胁多。幸运的是,博格华纳去年的EBIT增长了4.4%,使得债务负担看起来更加可控。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但最终业务的未来盈利能力将决定博格华纳是否能够随着时间加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你关注未来,你可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, BorgWarner's free cash flow amounted to 49% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最后,业务需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润并不能满足要求。因此,合乎逻辑的步骤是看一下EBIT中实际自由现金流的比例。在过去三年中,博格华纳的自由现金流占其EBIT的比例为49%,低于我们的预期。在偿还债务方面,这并不好。
Our View
我们的观点
On our analysis BorgWarner's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to handle its total liabilities. Considering this range of data points, we think BorgWarner is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for BorgWarner you should know about.
根据我们的分析,博格华纳的利息保障能力应该表明其债务不会太大问题。但是我们上面提到的其他因素是不那么令人鼓舞的。例如,它似乎有点艰难地处理其总负债。考虑到这些数据点范围,我们认为博格华纳处于很好的债务管理地位。但需要注意的是:我们认为债务水平高到足以需要持续监控。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务是最多的。然而,并不是所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,离它很远。这些风险很难发现,每个公司都有,我们已经发现了博格华纳的一个警告信号,你应该知道。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
说到底,有时候更容易集中精力关注根本不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费访问零净债务增长股票列表。
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