Bitcoin's Lackluster Price Action: What Is Going On?
Bitcoin's Lackluster Price Action: What Is Going On?
Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) recent price action has been eerily similar to 2019, according to prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who suggests this pattern may soon change as market sentiment shifts.
比特币(加密货币:BTC)最近的价格走势与2019年出奇地相似,这是知名加密货币分析师本杰明·考温所说的,他指出随着市场情绪的转变,这种模式可能很快会改变。
What Happened: Cowen, known for his data-driven approach, in his latest stream pointed out that Bitcoin's lower highs and a struggle to maintain above the bull market support band mirror the 2019 price action.
据以数据驱动方法著称的分析师Cowen在最新的直播中指出,比特币的上涨高点和难以维持在牛市支撑区间之上的困境与2019年的价格走势相似。
However, the analyst notes a growing discomfort with the 2019 comparison. "There's part of me that is finally starting to think about the 2019 comparison as uncomfortable," as many who initially dismissed the comparison are now embracing it, potentially signaling a need for the trend to change.
然而,这位分析师指出,对于2019年的比较越来越不安。"有部分人开始觉得2019年的比较令人不适,"因为许多最初对比较持否定态度的人现在开始接受它,可能暗示着趋势需要改变。
Cowen suggests that Bitcoin's future may be more closely tied to monetary policy than strict adherence to historical patterns. He speculates that it might take "about 200 basis points of rate cuts" to break Bitcoin out of its current downtrend. Polymarket data shows a 73% chance for a 25 basis points cut in September.
Cowen建议称,比特币的未来可能更多地与货币政策密切相关,而不是严格遵循历史模式。他推测,可能需要"大约200个基点的降息"才能让比特币摆脱当前的下行趋势。 Polymarket数据显示,9月有73%的概率进行25个基点的降息。
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Also Read: Why Is Bitcoin Underperforming Against Gold? Because They're 'Not Meaningfully Correlated,' Analyst Points Out
另请阅读:为什么比特币表现不佳与黄金相比?因为它们'没有显著相关性',分析师指出
Why It Matters: Cowen draws attention to other metrics, such as gold's performance and USDT dominance, which have played out as he predicted earlier this year. These factors contribute to his overall market assessment.
重要性何在:Cowen关注其他指标,如黄金表现和USDT的统治地位,与他今年早些时候的预测一致。这些因素有助于他的整体市场评估。
Looking ahead, Cowen presents multiple scenarios. While he believes the market could remain "relatively boring for a few more months," he's open to pivoting his analysis as new data emerges. He warns of potential risks, including a concerning trend in unemployment rates. For the week ending Aug. 30, initial jobless claims came in at 231,000, compared to an expectation of 232,000.
展望未来,Cowen提出了多种情景。虽然他认为市场可能在接下来的几个月内"相对乏味",但他愿意根据新数据调整分析。他警告可能存在潜在风险,包括失业率令人担忧的趋势。截至8月30日周末,首次申领失业救济金人数为231,000,预期为232,000。
What's Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
接下来:比特币作为机构资产类别的影响力预计将在Benzinga即将到来的数字资产未来活动中得到彻底探讨。日期是11月19日。
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