Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603599) Analysts Are More Bearish Than They Used To Be
Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603599) Analysts Are More Bearish Than They Used To Be
The analysts covering Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603599) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously. The stock price has risen 4.1% to CN¥10.56 over the past week. Investors could be forgiven for changing their mind on the business following the downgrade; but it's not clear if the revised forecasts will lead to selling activity.
覆盖广信股份(SHSE:603599)的分析师今天向股东们传递了一剂负面消息,通过对今年的法定预测进行大幅修订。无论是营业收入还是每股收益(EPS)预估都受到了大幅削减,分析师纳入了业务的最新展望,得出他们之前过于乐观的结论。股价在过去一周上涨了4.1%至人民币10.56。投资者可能会因为降级而改变对该业务的看法,但尚不清楚修订后的预测是否会导致卖出活动。
Following the latest downgrade, Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical's twin analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be CN¥5.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to be CN¥1.24, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥6.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.69 in 2024. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates and a pretty serious decline to earnings per share numbers as well.
经过最新的降级,广信股份的两位分析师目前预计2024年营收将达到52亿元,大致与过去12个月持平。法定每股收益预计为1.24元,大致与过去12个月持平。分析师此前曾预测2024年的营收为69亿元,每股收益(EPS)为1.69元。分析师情绪明显下降,收入预测大幅减少,每股收益数字也大幅下降。
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The consensus price target fell 40% to CN¥14.29, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates.
共识价位目标下调40%至人民币14.29,较弱的盈利展望显然导致分析师估值预测。
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical.
现在让我们从更宏观的角度来看,我们理解这些预测的一种方法是看它们与过去的业绩和行业增长预测的比较。我们会指出,广信股份的营收增长预计将放缓,直到2024年年底的年化增长率预计为1.3%,远低于过去五年中22%的历史年增长率。相比之下,该行业中其他有分析师覆盖的公司预计年均营收增长率为15%。因此,尽管预计营收增长将放缓,但更广泛的行业也预计会比广信股份增长更快。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical.
新的估算中最大的问题是,分析师已经降低了每股收益的估算,表明安徽广信股份面临业务挑战。遗憾的是,他们还降低了收入估算,最新的预测表明该企业的销售增长速度比整个市场较慢。在分析师的情绪发生如此剧烈变化之后,我们可以理解读者对安徽广信股份感到有些担忧。
That said, the analysts might have good reason to be negative on Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical, given concerns around earnings quality. Learn more, and discover the 1 other warning sign we've identified, for free on our platform here.
尽管如此,鉴于对安徽广信股份的盈利质量的担忧,分析师可能有充分的理由持悲观态度。在我们的平台上免费了解更多,并发现我们已经找到的另外1个警告信号。
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跟踪管理层是购买还是销售,是寻找可能达到关键点的有趣公司的另一种方法,我们的免费公司列表由内部支持的增长公司组成。
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