Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year
Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year
Shareholders might have noticed that Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (HKG:914) filed its half-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.3% to HK$16.52 in the past week. It was a curious result overall, with revenues coming in an incredible 27% below what the analysts had expected, at CN¥46b. Statutory earnings per share beat analyst models by 47% to hit CN¥0.66. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
股东们可能已经注意到，安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司（HKG:914）上周提交了其上半年业绩报告。但其股价在过去一周下跌了3.3%，至HK$16.52。总体上，这是一个令人好奇的结果，营收比分析师预期低了27%，达到460亿元人民币。每股盈利达到0.66元人民币，比分析师的预测高出47%。分析师通常会在每份财报发布后更新他们的预测，我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否改变，或是否存在任何新的问题需要注意。因此，我们收集了最新的财报后预测，以了解下一年可能发生的事情。
Following the latest results, Anhui Conch Cement's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥129.3b in 2024. This would be a reasonable 6.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 25% to CN¥1.78. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥138.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.89 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
根据最新的结果，安徽海螺水泥公司的14名分析师预测2024年营业收入为1293亿元人民币。与过去12个月相比，这将是收入合理增长了6.8%。每股盈利预计将增长25%，达到1.78元人民币。然而，在最新财报发布之前，分析师对2024年的预期营业收入为1381亿元人民币，每股盈利为1.89元人民币。显然，在最新财报之后，悲观情绪在市场上出现，导致收入预期下调和每股盈利估计出现小幅下跌。
The consensus price target fell 5.7% to HK$21.64, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Anhui Conch Cement at HK$28.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$16.06. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
共识价格目标下降了5.7%，达到了HK$21.64，其较弱的盈利预期显然对估值产生了影响。此外，观察分析师预测的范围也是有意义的，以评估离群意见与均值的差别。目前，最乐观的分析师将安徽海螺水泥的股价定为HK$28.00，而最悲观的价格为HK$16.06。注意分析师价格目标的巨大差距？这对我们来说意味着业务的可能情景范围较广。
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Anhui Conch Cement is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 14% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 5.0% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.5% annually. So it looks like Anhui Conch Cement is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
当然，另一种看待这些预测的方法是将其与行业本身进行比较。这些预测中有一点非常突出，那就是安徽海螺水泥未来的增长预期要快于过去，预计营业收入将以14%的年增长率显示到2024年底。如果实现这一目标，将比过去五年的年度下降5.0%要好得多。与行业整体分析师预测相比，行业收入预计年均增长5.5%。所以看起来，至少在一段时间内，安徽海螺水泥的增长预期要快于竞争对手。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是，营收预测未发生重大变化，业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元，最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Anhui Conch Cement's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Anhui Conch Cement's future valuation.
最重要的一点是，分析师们调降了他们的每股收益预测，显示出这些成果之后情绪明显下降。他们还下调了安徽海螺水泥的营业收入预测，但行业数据表明，它预计将比整个行业增长更快。共识目标价格明显下降，分析师们似乎对最新的成果不放心，导致对安徽海螺水泥未来估值的预期更低。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Anhui Conch Cement. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Anhui Conch Cement going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
考虑到这一点，我们不应过快下结论关于安徽海螺水泥。长期盈利能力比明年的利润更重要。在Simply Wall St，我们拥有2026年安徽海螺水泥的分析师估计数据范围，您可以在这里免费查看。
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Anhui Conch Cement that you need to take into consideration.
值得注意的是，我们发现了1个关于安徽海螺水泥的警示信号，您需要考虑到这一点。
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