Why SWS Hemodialysis Care's (SHSE:688410) Soft Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems
Why SWS Hemodialysis Care's (SHSE:688410) Soft Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems
SWS Hemodialysis Care Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:688410) lackluster earnings announcement last week disappointed investors. We looked deeper and believe that there is even more to be worried about, beyond the soft profit numbers.
SWS Hemodialysis Care有限公司(SHSE:688410)上周发布的业绩低迷的宣告令投资者失望。我们深入研究后发现,除了疲软的利润数据之外,还有更多令人担忧的问题。
![1724975682249](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240830/43090638-0-5de293244ff4038481b7ea3006b5ae4e.webp/bigjpg)
Examining Cashflow Against SWS Hemodialysis Care's Earnings
审视SWS Hemodialysis Care的现金流与盈利
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
在高级财务中,用来衡量公司将报告的利润转换为自由现金流(FCF)的主要比率是应计比率(来自现金流量表)。该应计比率从给定期间的FCF中减去利润,并将结果除以该时间段内公司的平均营运资产。你可以将应计比率从现金流量表视为“非自由现金流利润比率”。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
因此,负应计比率对公司是有益的,而正应计比率则是不利的。这并不是说我们应该担心正应计比率,但值得注意的是应计比率相当高的地方。值得注意的是,有一些学术证据表明,高应计比率通常是短期利润的不良迹象。
For the year to June 2024, SWS Hemodialysis Care had an accrual ratio of 0.58. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥26m despite its profit of CN¥106.0m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was CN¥233m a year ago though, so SWS Hemodialysis Care has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. One positive for SWS Hemodialysis Care shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
截至2024年6月,SWS Hemodialysis Care的应计比率为0.58。根据一般规则,这对未来的盈利能力不利。事实上,在这段时期内,该公司根本没有产生任何自由现金流。尽管上述提到的其利润为CN¥10600万,但在过去的十二个月中,其实际自由现金流为负值,流出了CN¥2600万。然而,一年前其自由现金流为CN¥23300万,所以SWS Hemodialysis Care至少过去能够产生正面的自由现金流。然而,这还没有考虑到全部因素。我们可以看到,异常项目对其法定利润和应计比率产生了影响。对SWS Hemodialysis Care股东来说,有一个积极的方面是,去年其应计比率显著改善,有理由相信它未来可以回到更为强劲的现金转换。如果那确实是事实,股东们应该寻求当前年度的现金流相对于利润的改善。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让您想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于其估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常规项目如何影响利润?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that SWS Hemodialysis Care's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥16m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. If SWS Hemodialysis Care doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
考虑到应计比例,SWS透析护理公司在过去十二个月中受到了价值1600万人民币的飞凡项目的推动,这并不让人感到过于惊讶。我们不能否认,更高的利润通常让我们感到乐观,但我们希望这种利润能够持续下去。当我们分析了全球大多数上市公司时,我们发现重大的飞凡项目通常不会重复出现。这一点并不奇怪,因为项目名称如此。如果SWS透析护理公司看不到这种贡献的重复,那么在其他条件相同的情况下,我们预计其利润在当前年度会下降。
Our Take On SWS Hemodialysis Care's Profit Performance
对于SWS透析护理公司的利润表现,我们的看法是
Summing up, SWS Hemodialysis Care received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue SWS Hemodialysis Care's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. To help with this, we've discovered 4 warning signs (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in SWS Hemodialysis Care.
综上所述,SWS透析护理公司从飞凡项目中获得了可观的利润提升,但无法用自由现金流来匹配其虚拟利润。考虑到这一切,我们认为SWS透析护理公司的利润可能给人们对其可持续盈利能力的印象过于宽容。鉴于此,如果您想对该公司进行更多分析,了解所涉及的风险是至关重要的。为了帮助您,我们发现了4个警示信号(其中1个对我们来说并不太好!)在购买SWS透析护理公司的股票之前,您应该对此有所了解。
Our examination of SWS Hemodialysis Care has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我们对SWS透析护理公司的检查侧重于可以使其盈利看起来比实际更好的因素。基于这个基础,我们对此持有一定的怀疑态度。但是,如果您能够专注于细枝末节,就会发现还有更多可以发现的。例如,许多人认为高回报率是良好的商业经济状况的指标,而其他人喜欢“跟随资金”的方式,并寻找内部人员正在购买的股票。虽然这可能需要您进行一些研究,但您可能会发现这个免费的列出高回报率的公司集合或者这个具有重大内部持股的股票列表非常有用。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。