Some Analysts Just Cut Their Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE:NOAH) Estimates
Some Analysts Just Cut Their Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE:NOAH) Estimates
One thing we could say about the analysts on Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE:NOAH) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well. At US$8.41, shares are up 4.5% in the past 7 days. It will be interesting to see if this downgrade motivates investors to start selling their holdings.
关于诺亚财富有限公司(纽交所:NOAH)的分析师,我们可以说一件事情——他们并不乐观,刚刚对该公司的近期(法定)预测进行了重大的负面修订。分析师们大幅削减了收入预测,表明了较为疲弱的前景——这或许是投资者应该调整期望的一个信号。股价在过去7天上涨了4.5%,目前为每股8.41美元。有趣的是,这个降级是否会激励投资者开始抛售他们的股票,值得关注。
After the downgrade, the consensus from Noah Holdings' eight analysts is for revenues of CN¥2.5b in 2024, which would reflect an uneasy 9.8% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing CN¥3.1b of revenue in 2024. It looks like forecasts have become a fair bit less optimistic on Noah Holdings, given the substantial drop in revenue estimates.
在降级后,诺亚财富的八位分析师的一致预测是,2024年的营业收入将达到25亿元人民币,相比去年的业绩将出现不安的9.8%下降。在最新更新之前,分析师们预计2024年的营业收入将达到31亿元人民币。可以看出,对于诺亚财富的预测变得越来越少乐观,收入预测大幅下降。
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Notably, the analysts have cut their price target 7.0% to CN¥108, suggesting concerns around Noah Holdings' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Noah Holdings analyst has a price target of CN¥173 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥64.10. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
值得注意的是,分析师们将他们的目标价下调了7.0%,至108元人民币,这表明对诺亚财富的估值存在担忧。看看分析师预测的范围也很有指导意义,以评估离群意见与平均意见的不同程度。最乐观的诺亚财富分析师给出了每股173元人民币的目标价,而最悲观的分析师给出的目标价为64.10元人民币。因此,在这种情况下,并不会给分析师的目标价过多的信任度,因为在该业务上存在明显不同的观点。考虑到这一点,我们也不会过多依赖共识目标价,因为这只是一个平均值,而分析师对于该业务存在一些非常不同的观点。
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Noah Holdings' decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 19% to the end of 2024. This tops off a historical decline of 1.5% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 5.5% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Noah Holdings is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.
我们可以从更大的画面中来看待这些预测,比如将其与过去的业绩进行对比,并评估预测相对于行业中其他公司来说是更加看好还是更加保守。关于这些预测,我们还注意到诺亚财富的下降预计将加速,预计到2024年底,营业收入的年化下降率将达到19%。这在过去五年中形成了1.5%的历史性下降。与行业中其他公司的分析师预测相比,预计营收(总体上)每年将增长5.5%。因此,尽管有大量公司预计增长,但不幸的是,诺亚财富预计其销售状况将较其他行业公司更为不佳。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for this year. They also expect company revenue to perform worse than the wider market. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Noah Holdings after today.
抛开其他不谈,分析师对今年的预测营业收入进行了下调。他们还预计公司的营业收入表现将不如整个市场。此外,价格目标也有所下调,表明最新的消息使人们对该公司的内在价值更加悲观。鉴于情绪出现了如此明显的转变,如果投资者今天对诺亚财富更加谨慎,我们能理解。
Want more information? At least one of Noah Holdings' eight analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
想要更多信息吗?诺亚财富的八位分析师之一已经提供了2026年的预测数据,您可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.
当然,看到公司管理层投入大量资金投资股票的情况与分析师是否对其评级下调一样有用。因此,您还可以搜索此处的高内部所有权股票的免费列表。
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