Seize Investment Opportunities Amid a Record Gold Rally
Seize Investment Opportunities Amid a Record Gold Rally
$Gold Futures(DEC4) (GCmain.US)$ reached a new closing high this Tuesday as expectations of a September interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to gather momentum. So far this year, gold prices have risen over 23%, outperforming the three major U.S. stock indices.
$黄金主连(2412) (GCmain.US)$ 本周二,由于市场普遍预期美国联邦储备系统将在9月份降息,黄金期货价格再次达到新的收盘高位。今年以来,黄金价格已经上涨了23%以上,表现优于美国三大股指。
![](https://uspost.moomoo.com/news-editor-imgs/20240830/public/17250215426454692684289.png)
"Analysts foresee long-term gains for the precious metal, driven by the Federal Reserve's preparations to cut rates, believing inflation is under control," said Russell Shor, senior market specialist at Tradu.
"分析师们预计,由于美联储准备降息,认为通胀可控,贵金属长期上涨的机会较大。" Tradu的高级市场专家Russell Shor如是说。
Chicago and NY Fed directors favored discount rate cut in July
芝加哥和纽约联邦储备系统的董事倾向于在7月降低贴现利率。
Members of the boards of directors overseeing the Chicago and New York Federal Reserve banks voted in favor of lowering by a quarter percentage point the central bank’s discount rate during July, according to meeting minutes released on Tuesday.
据周二公布的会议纪要显示,监管芝加哥和纽约联邦储备银行董事会的成员在7月就将央行贴现率下调一个百分点进行了投票。
The discount window meeting minutes offer an insight into the likely direction of monetary policy. With inflation pressures easing and risks around the job market rising, the Fed is almost certain to cut its rate target at the September policy meeting. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points is 67%, while the probability of a 50 basis points cut is 33%.
贴现窗口会议纪要为货币政策的可能方向提供了线索。随着通胀压力的缓解和就业市场风险的上升,美联储几乎可以肯定地在9月的政策会议上降息。根据CME Group的FedWatch工具,25个基点降息的概率为67%,50个基点降息的概率为33%。
![](https://uspost.moomoo.com/news-editor-imgs/20240830/public/17250215954479349904752.png)
Source: CME Group
来源:芝加哥商品交易所
What experts are saying about gold prices
关于黄金价格,专家们的看法
In a recent note, UBS analysts stated: “Dovish Fed expectations – with UBS economists now forecasting three 25bp rate cuts this year – the move lower in real rates, and a weaker US dollar have all been positive for the gold price.”
瑞银分析师在最近的一份报告中表示:“鸽派美联储的预期,瑞银经济学家目前预测今年将进行三次降息,实际利率下降以及美元走弱,这些都对黄金价格产生了积极影响。”
They also added that they don’t believe gold is currently overvalued and cite macroeconomic factors, investor positioning, and market dynamics as factors that show there is potential for further price increases.
他们还提到,他们不认为黄金目前被高估,并且引用了宏观经济因素,投资者仓位以及市场动态等因素来表明价格进一步上涨的潜力。
Meanwhile, Citi analysts said in July that gold prices might surge to $3,000 per ounce as financial flows show potential for significant expansion. The bank said at the time that a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve "should be bullish for gold and silver into year-end," with positive effects also expected for base metals like copper.
同时,花旗分析师在7月表示,金价可能会飙升到每盎司3000美元,因为金融流动显示出巨大的扩张潜力。该银行当时表示,美联储的宽松态度"应该会对年底金银市场看涨有积极影响",同时还有望对铜等基本金属产生积极影响。
That bullish sentiment is shared by Alamos Gold CEO John McCluskey. “I’ve been on record myself predicting a target of $2,650 by the end of the year,” stated McCluskey, who has been in the gold mining industry for over 35 years.
阿拉莫斯黄金公司首席执行官约翰·麦克卢斯基也分享了看好的情绪。“我个人已经预测今年年底的目标是2650美元,”麦克卢斯基表示,他在黄金矿业行业已有35年以上的从业经验。
McCluskey cited political upheaval and unrest internationally, as well as the issue of U.S. debt and the strength of the economy, as long-term factors that should continue driving the price of gold to new heights.
麦克卢斯基提到了国际上的政治动荡和动荡局势,以及美国债务和经济实力等长期因素,这些因素应该继续推动金价创新高。
“The U.S. debt has grown exponentially in recent months, reaching its current level of over $35T,” he adds. “Combined with anticipated rate cuts coming from the Fed and the upcoming U.S. election, as well as the growing concerns around the U.S. economy — these are all factors that can further increase the potential for gold.”
他补充说:“美国的债务在最近几个月呈指数级增长,目前已达到35万亿美元以上。再加上预计美联储将进行的降息以及即将到来的美国大选,以及对美国经济日益增长的担忧,这些都是可能进一步推动黄金价格上涨的因素。”
![](https://uspost.moomoo.com/news-editor-imgs/20240830/public/17250216502266997000955.png)
How to seize the opportunity of rising gold prices?
如何抓住黄金价格上涨的机会?
Due to the convenience and high liquidity of gold ETFs, and the ability to trade them online during trading hours, investors can seize the opportunity of rising gold prices by investing in ETFs.
由于黄金ETF的便利性和高流动性,以及在交易时间内可以在网上进行交易,投资者可以通过投资ETF抓住黄金价格上涨的机会。
As of the year-to-date performance, mainstream gold ETFs such as $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ and $Gold Trust Ishares (IAU.US)$ have risen over 21%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index which has increased by 17.24%. Meanwhile, the leveraged ETF, $ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL.US)$, has seen a rise of more than 37%.
截至今年以来的表现来看,主流黄金etf,比如 $SPDR黄金ETF (GLD.US)$和页面。$黄金信托ETF-iShares (IAU.US)$ 已经上涨超过21%,表现优于标普500指数的17.24%。同时,这个杠杆etf, $ProShares两倍做多黄金ETF (UGL.US)$,已经上涨超过37%。
![](https://uspost.moomoo.com/news-editor-imgs/20240830/public/17250217836262500569838.png)
Source: moomoo. As of August 29, 2024
资料来源:moomoo。截至2024年8月29日。
Investors should buy gold even as the metal hovers around record-high prices, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett.
投资者应该在白银价格创纪录高位徘徊时购买黄金,美国银行投资策略师迈克尔·哈特内特表示。
Potential gold ETFs to consider are $ISHARES GOLD TRUST MICRO (IAUM.US)$ and $Spdr Gold Minishares Trust (GLDM.US)$, which Hartnett called "top-rated."
可以考虑的潜在黄金etf有 $ISHARES GOLD TRUST MICRO (IAUM.US)$和页面。$SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM.US)$,哈特内特称其为“顶级”。
Source: Yahoo Finance, Reuters, CME Group
来源:雅虎财经,路透社,芝加哥商品交易所